Andy’s wife Zhanna went to the Super Bowl with two of her girl friends. They attended the game, partied all night long on Saturday and Sunday and had a ball. That’s Zhanna in the middle, with her girl friends.
For the next 10- days we will be entertaining out of town friends, so for the next several days, my writing will be hit and miss.
I want to comment on two articles written by Larry Edelson. The way I see it, they are at odds with each other – unless we experience hyperinflation, which he does not think is in our future.
As I have been saying now for some time, the U.S. will not suffer hyperinflation. Higher inflation, yes. But hyperinflation, no.
The dollar will lose its reserve status, but it will survive as our sovereign currency.
–Money and Markets, December 30, 2013
On November 25th, Larry published his predictions for gold. He wrote:
The momentum in gold remains negative, with a bearish bias heading into year-end.
And now, gold has fallen below the top of the 2014 trend range at $1,268.30. This tells you that the daily cycles are now overpowering the weekly cycles, setting up gold for a January 2014 low, at much lower prices.
All of this is also why I urge you to pay very close attention to the gold market now … to everything I write and send you … and be ready to act on a moment’s notice.
Gold is reaching its most important inflexion point since its major bottom back in 1999. And if you let the wild action throw you off course, you will miss the next big leg up that will take gold to well over $5,000 an ounce.
On January 6th he wrote:
We have to listen carefully to what the markets are telling us. And right now, gold and silver could be in the process of forming a cycle inversion, that if continued, may delay the final bottom until their next major cyclical turning point, which is in May.
Larry expects gold to bottom in May to well below $1,100, maybe as low as $1,000. Gold will then rebound and the next major bullish cycle will commence, and gold will top out at a minimum of $5,000 and possibly much higher.
On Monday, Larry wrote about the stock market.
What to Do Before the Real Bull Market in Stocks Begins (Moneyandmarkets.com)
Monday, February 3, 2014 at 7:30 am
The U.S. equity markets and, for that matter, most equity markets around the world, have topped.
They are now in a severe bear trend, one that will look at times like the end of the world is upon us.
You will hear all the die-hard bears come out of the woods. “Dow 5,000,” they will scream, or even lower. Another real estate crash. Plunging asset values. An emerging market crisis. Bank failures. Systemic crashes. And more.
But mark my words, the bear market that is beginning in equities is merely a temporary correction, one that will set the stage for the Dow Industrials to launch much higher, to over 31,000 in the years ahead.
I have been warning that there would be a sharp, sudden pullback in the stock markets before the real bull market begins. It’s here. It started last week. It’s going to be ugly at times. And it’s going to end later this year with almost everyone throwing in the towel, which of course, will be the time for you to back up the truck and buy big.
Continue reading on MoneyandMarkets.com.
Kira Brecht (Kitco) shares our view that a falling stock market is good for gold. For the last two and a half years, the stock market has been in a bull market (Richard Russell says this is just a bullish correction in a primary bear market) – and gold and silver have been smashed.
As you know, we are in the camp that believes that gold and silver should be much higher, but the markets are highly manipulated. But the manipulation would not be possible without lots of hot money, courtesy of the Fed, that has attracted to the gains in the stock market.
With low interest rates and gold and silver in retreat, the stock market was the “only game in town.” Once the stock market retreats in earnest, the hot money will look for a new home and gold will be one of the destinations.
Larry is certain that the stock market is about to suffer a major pull back, so gold should move UP. But he says gold won’t bottom until May, at $1,000 or $1,100. Then he says gold will resume its cyclical bull market move up, toward $5,000 or much higher. Rising gold normally accompanies a bear market in the stock market – but he says no, stocks are going up too.
Larry, I don’t think you can have it both ways. Unless hyperinflation levitates both gold and stocks, which could occur and in fact is exactly what John Williams predicts for 2014, his timing of stocks and gold is not in sync. He is using TA for his timing and TA does not factor in JPMorgan’s highly concentrated positions on COMEX, and the front-running, naked shorting and high frequency trading that bully gold and silver around with impunity.
His predictions may be correct, and we will find out soon enough, but normal market behavior does not predict a bull market in stocks AND gold and silver. Without hyperinflation it is unlikely to play out that way. And that is the last thing we need!
Here is what Kira Brecht wrote about this subject yesterday:
History Shows Bear Markets In Stocks Are Bullish For Gold (Kitco.com)
Friday January 31, 2014 13:58
You’ve probably already heard of the Stock Trader’s Almanac’s famous “January Barometer.” The indicator simply states: as the S&P goes in January, so goes the year.
Well, 2014 has gotten off to a bumpy start for U.S. equities and financial markets in general. Through Jan. 30, the S&P registered a 2.9% decline (and is unlikely to make it back to positive territory). The Dow Jones Industrials shaved 4.4% off their starting point for the year and global equities have been tanking as well. The Brazilian stock index is down 8.3% for the year, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has slid 5.5% and Japan’s Nikkei has plunged 7.9% during January.
Ouch.
According to that January Barometer the odds favor U.S. stocks posting a down year in 2014. Overall, Stock Trader’s Almanac says the indicator has seen only seven major errors since 1950, which translates into an 88.9% accuracy rate. Not bad.
So, what does this have to do with gold? Let’s take a look back at the two most recent bear markets in U.S. stocks —the first from early 2000 to late 2002 and the second from October 2007 to the March 2009 low.
Continue reading on Kitco.com.
The more I read Larry Edelson’s stuff, the more I think that he doesn’t know any more than anyone else. Remember, David, Edelson does NOT believe the precious metal prices are manipulated! Personally, I don’t see how anyone, especially someone with Edelson’s experience, can’t see that the metals aren’t manipulated. I have more confidence in Andy Hoffman than I do Edelson.
The one and ONLY answer to the debt problem is to declare it null and void because of FRAUD! It is fraud because it is mathematically impossible to repay ! It can not be repaid because the interest is never created on the loan and that is fraud ! And fraud voids all ! If we don’t void all out of thin air debt the bankers will own almost EVERYTHING ! And we will be homeless slaves ! They have a license to counterfeit ! Can I counterfeit the money to repay the loan ? Why not ? If we even attempt to repay a impossible debt (the national debt) all we do is show our ignorance ! The way to fix this mess is so simple a 3rd grader can figure it out ! We void the fraudulent debt! and everyone keeps ALL the items they have so called debt on ! And then we start to use a debt free currency and / or gold and silver ! And then we will have a robust economy like never before — OR WE LET THE BANKERS STEAL EVERYTHING !
I was in about the third grade when the news was talking about the national debt and I asked my dad who do we owe money to and who could possibly be richer than the United States? and where did they get the money? And then my dad took a gulp off his beer and said we owe it to our self ! I said that’s the dumbest thing I ever heard of ! that’s like me borrowing from my right pocket and setting fire to the interest and putting the rest in my left pocket ! This was about 1972 ! And yes it really is this simple ! The bankers have a shoe in on ALL loans they make ! All they have to do is stop lending and then start foreclosing on ALL debts!-meaning they now own everything that has a debt by having a license to counterfeit ! So we 1 keep getting fleeced by continuing to pay this fraudulent scheme ! OR 2 we declare ALL out of thin air debt NULL AND VOID because of FRAUD ! And we ALL keep everything we have so called debt on! MOST people don’t get this part Every car, boat, house, machine, tool, farm,ect. has already been paid for by the fraudulent paper! So no one looses ! WE sure as hell cant give it to the banksters! (let them steal it) AND IT DOESENT MATTER IF YOU WANT TO REDUCE THE DEBT 90% ITS STILL UNPAYABLE! So when we void the FRAUD This will be the ultimate FRESH start for everyone ! Share this if you want THE solution to the WORLDS problems! If not everything will continue to get worse until we have HONEST DEBT FREE MONEY /and GOLD AND SILVER ! And there is plenty of gold and silver! just Divide the paper money (FRN) by the gold /silver and you have the value of them! NO MATTER WHAT IT COMES TO per OZ ! Then we would be happy to work for SAY A ONE OZ. SILVER COIN A day ! Because NOW REAL MONEY will buy what $100 did before the reset! THINK ABOUT IT! This is what Scripture calls the jubilee !