I am going to make several very LARGE statements that will probably attract all sorts of bashers, naysayers and skeptics. Before doing so I want to review where I believe things stand currently. We know that the world has now set up a “competitive” bank and clearing system to the dollar, the IMF and the World Bank. We also know that China has been buying almost all of the world’s gold production for the last several years. This has occurred in the face of the price of gold dropping 35% (silver more than 60%) over the last 2+ years. Inflation that is “officially” reported at under 2% is actually running between 5-10% while our stock markets are at or close to all time highs and U.S. “funded” (admitted) debt is now over 100% of GDP. My point is this, we are in really poor (dire) financial shape, we are not being told the real story and something, somewhere, is about to snap.
Here goes … I believe that we are on the cusp of the precious metals making an historic moonshot in terms of dollars. I believe that over the next 3-5 years, gold and silver will make moves both in dollars and percentage terms as big or bigger than what they did back in 1978-1980. I also believe that the shares will not only participate but will be the biggest movers of all. In terms of dollars, I believe it is possible that gold reaches a range between $10,000-$30,000 and silver well above $200 per ounce over the next several years! I will also say that if these numbers turn out to be wrong, they will most likely be far too low and conservative in nature. I also believe that this move will begin shortly (the next 2-3 months?) and maybe even come out of nowhere. The move could be kicked off with fundamental news such as Saudi Arabia accepting “non” dollars for oil, it could occur based on some sort of financial news or because of war. The move could begin prior to any news release or after, there is no way to tell and it really doesn’t and won’t matter one way or the other.
OK, so how can I make such grand statements? Over the last few years I have documented the “fundamental” case for you. Demand has dwarfed supply. The amount of debt, money supplies, and derivatives outstanding have exploded against a gold “flow” (new supply) that isn’t even growing at 2% per year. From a fundamental standpoint, you must also question whether the U.S. (or anyone else for that matter) really has the gold that they say they do. Gold in far more numerous quantities than have been mined has been moving east to China, Russia, India, et al …it had to have come from somewhere and the most likely place would be “Western vaults”. We know all of this, we/I have talked and written about it until blue in the face and your patience has surely been tested.
So why now? Why (other than fundamental reasons) should gold and silver explode in price? I received the following links from Morris Hubbart this past Friday in which he comments on very long term gold and silver charts that were created by Stewart Thomson of Graceland Updates. They are 5 minutes in length and easy to understand. Please watch them now so you will have a reference to my explanation.
http://www.superforcesignals.com/video/2014july17goldmacdbigpic/2014july17goldmacdbigpic.html
http://www.superforcesignals.com/video/2014july17silverbigpic/2014july17silverbigpic.html
These videos show the charts of both gold and silver that go back to 1971. This is important for several reasons. First, 1971 was the year that gold and the dollar were no longer “pegged” at $35. This peg was broken as you know because the U.S. lost at least 60% of her gold to foreigners who were turning in dollars and demanding gold for them. The “artificial” price of $35 could no longer be defended. Another reason that a very long term chart is important is because over many many years, it can only be “massaged” at best rather than completely “painted”. I and many others have brought to your attention that over the last years, “paper gold” has been sold to retard or suppress the price. In fact, just last Monday and Tuesday had 11 trading minutes where 90+ tons of so called gold were sold. Who would ever sell like this? Who even has this much gold to sell? This was 4% of total global production …in 11 trading minutes? This dumping of contracts surely shows up in the hourly or daily charts, they are not even a blip on the monthly charts. The most important aspect of the monthly charts is that when the MACD’s crossover, it is a good indication where the next 2 to 3+ years are headed.
I am not a technician by any stretch and don’t profess to be able to read Gann, French curves or Elliott waves. In fact, I believe that these practices are left open to far too much interpretation. I do believe however that charts (long term) have validity and can be useful, particularly when the “MACD’s” (moving average convergence divergence) are included. This is how I see these charts. We have had a correction over the past 2+ years that was actually shallow in gold (not so shallow in silver) compared to previous corrections over the past 43 years. This correction has occurred with the MACD relation moving lower than at any point in time over these last 43 years. I take this to mean that “internally” gold is strong and has been accumulated the entire way down. The moving averages are now “touching” and about to cross over to the upside which will create a very major buy signal. This is going to happen sooner or later whether it be this month, next month or even 3 to 4 months from now. Even a sideways movement from here will trigger the buy signal.
I want to explain this a little further so you will have a better understanding. These charts are like “coiled springs” waiting to snap. The MACD’s are turning up from the deepest levels ever while price did not get hit as hard as in previous corrections. For example, gold dropped nearly 50% from 1975 to 1977 before its historic run up to $850. A similar correction today would have seen gold trade under $1,000 but it did not happen. I think that the best way to describe this is that gold is about to jump from a much higher diving board (price) and the diving board has far more “spring” (lower MACD crossover point) to it than any other time since 1971!
With the above said regarding the technical analysis that suggest the “time is very close” and that the move should be very large, let’s go back to the fundamentals because they are what really count. It only makes sense that gold should go far higher in dollar terms from here because gold is “real money” and dollars are “fake money” that is issued by a bankrupt institution. It is for this reason that I said above that my “moonshot” numbers very well may be ridiculously low! The possibility does exist in a worst case scenario (where it is discovered that Ft. Knox is completely empty and the U.S. goes into total financial collapse and default) that gold goes to infinity in dollar terms because dollars go to zero. I am not saying that this will happen, what I am saying is that it is possible.
To wrap this up, the fact that the MACD’s are turning up from such low and coiled levels tells me that the move will be very large and violent to the upside. From a fundamental standpoint, when you do the math of gold price to money supply or to debt, you get numbers higher than I spoke of above. When you couple this with the knowledge that the dollar surely looks about to be dethroned as the world’s reserve currency you have a chicken or the egg problem. Is the dollar about to crater in value or is it that gold is about to explode upward in price? From another angle, do the charts forecast a gold price explosion or does an explosion occur because price has been suppressed (and thus coiled) for so long? If you think about it, these long term charts have “captured” the suppression scheme picture perfectly and are illustrated by the massive “coils” that now exist. The U.S. almost “lost control of the gold price back in 2011, I don’t believe they will be as lucky on this go round as few if any more rabbits can be pulled from Uncle Sam’s tattered hat! Remember, the East is about to open “physical exchanges” where true prices will be discovered late this year. The “discovery process” will in my opinion be shocking and the long term charts are telling us this!
Very encouraging, Bill. I’ve been mocked for my views on the economy and precious metals, but I have known all along that I eventually would be vindicated. Looks like that day is almost here.
yes it does.
Another great article there, “dollar” Bill. However all of my ‘Dollars’ (Proper nouns, first Letter always in uppercase, versus common nouns) are actual “$”, ergo in U.S. Gold & Siver Coin. And when Phed Reserve IOUs go down in flames, my actual & genuine ‘Dollars’ will be going along on that Moon shot, and once again Americans will realize the true value of Silver Dimes, Quarters & Half Dollars, and the necessity of same for purchasing their daily needs. Cheers, S. Rex
Hello Bill,
I still can not get the interview with Turd Ferguson to open.
Thanks for your efforts.
I have contacted Turd Ferguson but not heard back yet. Am trying.
Whie I agree with your conclusions I am confused by your pricing
$30,000 gold and $200 silver is a silver to gold ratio
of 150 oz of silver to 1 oz of gold. It comes out of the ground at about 1 oz gold to 10 oz silver so it should be
$30,000 gold and $3,000 silver.
it’s actually about 15-1, I typo’ed and should have been $2,000. my bad.
@ Bill re TF – he posted your Moonshot article this morning.Proving once again that Miles Franklin ROCKS! http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/419692#comment-419692
thanks, please tell him that our MP3 interview from last Friday does not work. Thanks.
Will do Bill, however I think it has to do with the A2A Interview currently being in his “vault” side of his website which is for paying subscribers, and he has not yet released to to the public side of his website. BTW U ROCK 2 there, Bill, but they’re still FRN IOUs and not “Dollars” Move up to Hill county, we’ll get you straight. LOL. Cheers. S. Rex
Bill, TF just confirmed to me that the problem has been fixed so the readers should now be able to enjoy. Cheers, S. Rex
yes, fixed.
Hey Bill I was not able to pull up the second video. The link takes me to a new domain and creation of new website page.
However, I remember stating something like this about the 3yr chart of Silver. I see we are even closer now. I just called my local coin dealer on some silver dimes pre 1964 and he is selling them for $100.00 for 50. Talk about a steal. Apmex is selling 25 of them for the same price. So you know where I am heading, plus I have no shipping or taxes to pay. What a deal!!
actually it is $20 per 1 dollar face, this is a very big premium.
Remove the HTTP// from the address. I had the same problem. Start with the WWW. Bill might want to fix that.
sorry, I can’t fix it from here. I’ll try to get our administrator to get on it tomorrow.
Your predictions assume a functional market. In the past, there has been some semblance of a market capable of reacting to market forces. Today, we have a market that is “painted” by the Fed and bullion banks. How can you make these grand predictions when you know price suppression rules the day. Charts don’t matter. Past behavior doesn’t matter. Market control matters. Fed control remains solid. Paper and physical markets remain bound. Nothing can change until that changes.
wrong Lisa, what will change is that they will run out of “paint”. Once the run begins into gold, good luck keeping control of anything.
Bill’
I can’t disagree with the possibility of what you state. But, you need to tell your audience what America would look like with gold at 30,00o. I think, at the extreme, an ak47 with several thousand rounds might have more value than a gold eagle. There would be choas.
Steven, an AK47 with several thousand rounds cannot be purchased today for a Gold Eagle. I have written many times before that when the system comes down, life will be FUBAR’d. For some, there will be no amount of gold acceptable for the gun…especially if it’s their only gun!
Good article Bill. Was your Moonshot title a tribute to the Apollo 11 anniversary, or just a coincidence? I actually live about 5 miles from the late hero Neil Armstrong here in So. Ohio.
pun intended but I didn’t start out to make a pun, only after seeing the news this morning did I make the connection.
Yes, I am ready for the moonshot. Been ready for awhile.
How many metals analysts are calling for an upward movement in price, but fail to ever speculate on the timeline? Answer: all of them. All of them except for Mr. Holter. It takes guts and I thank you for sharing your gut feeling with us. I also think you’re right.
it’s not a “gut feeling” Sally. Look at the MACD lines at the bottom right hand corner of the chart, they are crossing up which gives a MASSIVE buy signal!
“I also believe that this move will begin shortly (the next 2-3 months?)…” you say in the article. Perhaps you used the crossing MACD lines to arrive at the timeline you mention; I’m not familiar with them, so don’t know if they yield time clues.
yes Sally, they are VERY time specific. I said “2-3 months” as a hedge, I believe we will see an “impulse wave” upwards any day or week now.
All I can say is I hope you are right. I am surprised PMs are not impossible to get already. The math has been impossible for so long and getting worse, yet the hundredth monkey moment has not yet occurred. I am also well armed and have some preps. It is coming, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it is still a ways off due to the uncanny ability of the gubment to kick the can.
I don’t think it will be long, the world has lined up against us.
I believe you are correct with your assumptions. I do have mixed feelings about gold going to infinity though. Only 1% (?) of us in our corner of this world have prepared for this eventuality. I fear the social chaos and drastic changes in living conditions that this will bring about. Fortunately you have helped the 1% prepare for our financial future, it is the 99% I fear for.
it’s only a question of “degree” how bad things will get.
What? Too much coffee today? Rocket boosting your psyche because PM”s aren’t doing
shit now or in the future due to government and global controls? Bill, get a grip.
The SDR will rule the day, and maybe at gunpoint.
did you bother to even watch the video?
Great report, but its based on a “Zero-Sum” assumption. The Chinese do not agree with that assumption, but they prefer an “Win-Win” assumption for sustainability. China has been buying large quantities of gold for only one purpose, and that is to base the Chinese Yuan on gold’s historical constant purchasing power.
There are one million grams in each metric tonne. If China pegs 400 Yuan per gram, then China can print 400 million Yuans for each metric tonne that it holds in escrow. If China has acquired 20,000 tonnes of gold, it could print 8 trillion Yuan that is totally convertible for physical gold. If China continues to buy 1,000 tonnes each year, it is able to add 400 billion Yuans each year.
Gold based paper is better than Physical gold since it can be digitized and transferred as easy and low cost as a Bitcoin.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has witness hundreds of agreements and contracts in both Africa and South America for construction of railroads, hospitals, schools, and highways. Teaching someone how to fish is not a win-win arrangement unless you supply them with the tools for fishing.
Bill, I could not get the silver link to work. Is it correct? And by the way, great articles you write.
Thanks Jorge, try substituting “www” for the “http//”, it should work but if not, silver looks exactly like gold where the MACD’s are concerned.
Hi Bill: If gold is $10,000-$30,000 an ounce plus and this is based because of true fundementals finally being allowed to play out, isn’t it historcally true that the gold to silver ratio is 1/16? Therefore rather than well above $200, wouldn’t $626-$1,875 be a fairly safe assumption? Some are even saying the ratio is 1/10 or less because pretty much all the gold that was ever mined is still in existense where some silver has been used up being a more industial metal.
I guess what I am asking is…. Is there a reason you think the gold to silver ration may be that high? $10,000/$200 = still a 1/50 ratio? Right now it looks to be 1/62.
Rich, I typo’d, should be $2,000 if we got to $30,000 gold. The ratio will come down in my opinion.
That makes total sense. Thanks for clarifying.
BTW, does your milesfranklin.com e-mail work? I sent you something and oddly it came back as undeliverable from a yahoo address. Not undeleverable from milesfranklin? Whether you have time for what I sent to you or not, I just wanted to confirm you got the e-mail from me?
Thanks, RichM
don’t remember getting anything, resend it although I will be out of touch for the next couple of days.
Lets assume that people collectively start to lose confidence in paper money.
The $USD for e.g.
What will they do? I suggest they will start getting out of liquid assets and run for cover into tangibles. The easiest of those to acquire is PM’s.
Now…the BID will increase and continue to do so as confidence in $$ declines.
This will have nothing to do with perceived shortages of supply of PM’s.
Given that all the Gold that has ever been mined is still in existence, how could it be in any shortage. Impossible.
What we will find is that the price will go BID ONLY. NO ASK.
Why no ask?
Answer…who in their right mind will be swapping real money for increasingly worthless $$$ or other legal tender.
As PM’s go higher in bid so to will the ask, the spread will widen dramatically until the ask is withdrawn.
$30k Gold…maybe. I will not be selling.
you are correct about no “offer”…I believe that you are wrong about no “shortages”. There has been no overt shortage because official sources have clandestinely provided gold to the market.
I completely agree with you about the new physical exchanges in the east. That may set the whole thing off and blow up Comex, after all there is no need for futures contracts on a commodity that has no supply issues ! 🙂
wrong, there is a supply problem that has been masked by leaking official gold into the market. Just because you say “I completely agree with you” does not allow you to slip the “no supply issues” in and go on down the road. I totally disagree with that.
I have looked at the charts and the videos. They are promising (sort of).
It will not surprise me to see Gold break down to $682, however!
Weekly gold has put in 3 higher lows but not higher highs
A macd is just a moving average,nothing more,nothing less.
If you really want to trade gold,put in a buy order in at 1347 stop with a sell stop at1286
I will let you all know where next buy order should be.
Currently a sell stop at $1286 and a buy stop at $1346 is appropriate,so take both OCO
“the MACD’s are moving averages, nothing less, nothing more”…wrong again, it is the relationship between the 2 averages that counts and they are now crossing over at a lower and more coiled level than any time in the last 45 years. $682 is about 50% of the all in cost of production, good luck with this one. I believe that gold may at worst have $100-$150 downside with the potential of several thousand $s to the upside, a great risk versus return situation. If you have “read the charts” and have this advice for me (us), please refrain. Thanks.
Bill, all I am saying is that it will not surprise me IF it goes to $682.
It could also get to $10000
You need to be way more flexible in your analysis and advice.
So where exactly is your stop Bill?
Mine (at this date) is $61 and yours is an airy fairy $100-$150
I ask your readers>>>WHO HAS THE BETTER TRADE ADVICE HERE?
Furthermore do you realise that your possible $150 stop on a buy trade taken next open at say $1310 will leave you out at $1160… likely breakdown of gold price.
I guess the MACD directional movement indicator will have changed a bit by then eh Bill.
I will try and refrain.
I did not say “stop”, I said the “downside” might be $150. “Likely breakdown of price”? Sorry Silversmurfer, I am not allowed to print what I really think. Please stop about “trading”, my article was simply about MACD’s that are VERY long term and are right now in the process of crossing up which argues for higher prices, not a ridiculous number like $682. How do you know that it’s not really $682.30?
stop? for what? Flexible? Why? My “advice” is to buy as much physical gold and silver as you can today because the odds are very good that we will see “no offer” at some point. You should not ever sell anything that is grossly undervalued if you are looking at it long term which you apparently are not. $682? All I can say to you is ……..”stop”!
Nice article and I agree with the overall sentiment although $200/ounce for silver doesn’t just seem conservative to me, but ultra-conservative. I think silver is likely to go over $2000/ounce.
probably.