In last December’s “2012 EXPECTATIONS,” I expressed reluctance to predict near-term events. Frankly, I find most “year-ahead” forecasts to be USELESS; particularly when utilized as marketing tools rather than honest thought pieces. I feel no differently of this age-old rite of the financial industry; so again, I am caveating my “forecast” with the following disclaimer…
I mean, who knows what will happen? There are simply too many moving parts to gauge, as the global economy is a ‘living system’ comprised of volatile, unpredictable human beings and – in today’s world – increasingly dangerous computer algorithms capable of reeking incomprehensible damage by accident. Throw in the wrath of Mother Nature – who in recent years has been on the warpath; and the largest unknown of all – collective human confidence – and such forecasts become comical at best.
Nearly all “2013 forecasts” I’ve read thus far are simple extrapolations of what we see today; a psychological trait common to all human activity, particularly in financial markets where for centuries investors have ‘bought high and sold low’ – following the near-term trend instead of understanding the bigger picture.
Given these constraints, and exponential growth in government market intervention – both OVERT and COVERT; I will not attempt any wild predictions – “pulled out of my arse,” as some might say. Instead, I will cite general trends that I expect to continue, if not accelerate, in the coming 12 months. Forgive me if I too, fall victim to the “extrapolation bias.”
That said, I reviewed my 2012 forecasts and found them to be pretty close to reality – by essentially ALL metrics – per the bullet points below…
- The European debt crisis will dramatically deteriorate
- The U.S. Economy will weaken
- “Global QE” will become increasingly OVERT
- Gold will rise for the 12th straight year
- Gold will not remain below its 200 DMA for long
- The gold/silver ratio will decline
- Market volatility will EXPLODE
- Survivalism” will grow, worldwide
- The 2012 U.S. elections will break all records of campaign contributions, lies, smear campaigns, and SURPRISES
- Most investments will be deadly
Frankly, the ONLY thing I did not gauge correctly was the extent TPTB would intervene to prevent the inevitable from occurring. That is why I was incorrect about points #7 and #10 – while being DEAD ON about the other eight.
Going into 2013, the aforementioned inevitability appears FAR MORE acute than a year ago. That is, Currency Collapse, Hyperinflation & Social Unrest are GUARANTEED to spread through the Western world; with the only question being when.
Will it be 2013, or will TPTB survive another – likely traumatic – year or two before the END GAME expresses itself in 2014 or 2015? Frankly, I have no idea; although the list of potential “swans” – black, white, or otherwise – grows longer each day. Thus, I have decided to “go with my gut” on forecasting 2013; that is, to utilize the ultimate in extrapolation bias – by giving the EXACT same forecast as a year ago!
Sorry to disappoint those hoping I’d predict WAR – or PEACE, for that matter – as I haven’t a clue what will ultimately occur. However, I have learned well that “the trend is my friend;” and given what I view as a dramatic deterioration in global political, economic, and social trends over the past 12 months, “the trend” should only GAIN momentum in 2013.
Frankly, the only real question I have is whether TPTB will still have the ability to disprove points #7 and #10; as only massive MONEY PRINTING, MARKET MANIPULATION, and PROPAGANDA can prevent market volatility and significant asset losses. And I’m not talking the “2012 level” of such intervention; but a new, “amped-up 2013 level” that puts 2012 to shame.
Can they do so without DESTROYING confidence – and with it, countless fiat currencies? I don’t know, and I’m TERRIFIED to find out.
PROTECT YOURSELF, and do it NOW!
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