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In last December’s “2012 EXPECTATIONS,” I expressed reluctance to predict near-term events.  Frankly, I find most “year-ahead” forecasts to be USELESS; particularly when utilized as marketing tools rather than honest thought pieces.  I feel no differently of this age-old rite of the financial industry; so again, I am caveating my “forecast” with the following disclaimer

I mean, who knows what will happen?  There are simply too many moving parts to gauge, as the global economy is a ‘living system’ comprised of volatile, unpredictable human beings and – in today’s world – increasingly dangerous computer algorithms capable of reeking incomprehensible damage by accident.  Throw in the wrath of Mother Nature – who in recent years has been on the warpath; and the largest unknown of all – collective human confidence – and such forecasts become comical at best.

Nearly all “2013 forecasts” I’ve read thus far are simple extrapolations of what we see today; a psychological trait common to all human activity, particularly in financial markets where for centuries investors have ‘bought high and sold low’ – following the near-term trend instead of understanding the bigger picture.

Given these constraints, and exponential growth in government market intervention – both OVERT and COVERT; I will not attempt any wild predictions – “pulled out of my arse,” as some might say.  Instead, I will cite general trends that I expect to continue, if not accelerate, in the coming 12 months.  Forgive me if I too, fall victim to the “extrapolation bias.”

That said, I reviewed my 2012 forecasts and found them to be pretty close to reality – by essentially ALL metrics – per the bullet points below…

  1. The European debt crisis will dramatically deteriorate
  2. The U.S. Economy will weaken­  
  3. “Global QE” will become increasingly OVERT
  4. Gold will rise for the 12th straight year  
  5. Gold will not remain below its 200 DMA for long
  6. The gold/silver ratio will decline
  7. Market volatility will EXPLODE  
  8. Survivalism” will grow, worldwide
  9. The 2012 U.S. elections will break all records of campaign contributions, lies, smear campaigns, and SURPRISES
  10. Most investments will be deadly

Frankly, the ONLY thing I did not gauge correctly was the extent TPTB would intervene to prevent the inevitable from occurring.  That is why I was incorrect about points #7 and #10 – while being DEAD ON about the other eight.

Going into 2013, the aforementioned inevitability appears FAR MORE acute than a year ago.  That is, Currency Collapse, Hyperinflation & Social Unrest are GUARANTEED to spread through the Western world; with the only question being when.

Will it be 2013, or will TPTB survive another – likely traumatic – year or two before the END GAME expresses itself in 2014 or 2015?  Frankly, I have no idea; although the list of potential “swans” – black, white, or otherwise – grows longer each day.  Thus, I have decided to “go with my gut” on forecasting 2013; that is, to utilize the ultimate in extrapolation bias – by giving the EXACT same forecast as a year ago!

Sorry to disappoint those hoping I’d predict WAR – or PEACE, for that matter – as I haven’t a clue what will ultimately occur.  However, I have learned well that “the trend is my friend;” and given what I view as a dramatic deterioration in global political, economic, and social trends over the past 12 months, “the trend” should only GAIN momentum in 2013.

Frankly, the only real question I have is whether TPTB will still have the ability to disprove points #7 and #10; as only massive MONEY PRINTING, MARKET MANIPULATION, and PROPAGANDA can prevent market volatility and significant asset losses.  And I’m not talking the “2012 level” of such intervention; but a new, “amped-up 2013 level” that puts 2012 to shame.

Can they do so without DESTROYING confidence – and with it, countless fiat currencies?  I don’t know, and I’m TERRIFIED to find out.


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