On Friday, Gerald Celente published his Spring 2012 Trends Journal, of which I read the entire 44 pages within two days. This newsletter – dating back some 30 years – is unquestionably one of the best I have ever read.
From my platform here in the “PM shadow world,” I come across an immense amount of literature, representing multiple angles on the same themes. However, none is as thought provoking as the Trends Journal. Most newsletters focus on the present, but few on its links to the past and future. I do my best to make such connections, but RANTS are focused principally on educating people of what underlies the actions of financial markets. Conversely, Celente makes us think of why things are occurring, and what the bigger picture of human history and tendencies suggest.
Like me, Celente’s “undesirable” conclusions have been castigated by the “MAINSTREAM,” labeling him a Cassandra and “conspiracy theorist.” However, he has been DEAD-ON with his conclusions, with the foresight to carefully chronicle his forecasts for future generations. Unfortunately, even correct predictions are typically shunned by society, as the human psyche has no interest in commending those that predict calamity – as I have learned in spades.
I remember SCREAMING at the TV when Bush announced “OPERATION IRAQI LIBERATION” – calling it the next Vietnam – and to this day am still ignored and reviled for bringing it up. Celente was far more prescient, in February 2003 giving intimate details of the war’s outcome as if he had invented a time machine…
Washington’s promise, and the Pentagon’s prophesy, that this year’s Iraqi elections will help establish democracy and facilitate U.S. troop reductions, are as inaccurate as claims made last year by Vice President Cheney that the Iraq War is “behind us” and Maj. General Raymond Odierno’s prediction that “We have six to twelve months left of this insurgency.
Rather than unite the country, the upcoming Iraqi elections will create deeper political/tribal conflict, harden religious divisions and push Iraq into more chaos and a bloody civil war. There will be no democracy and no independent government, nor will there be an Iraqi armed force capable of accepting the transfer of United States’ military power.
Forced into waging war on their own, thousands more Americans will die, tens of thousands more will be wounded, hundreds of thousands of Iraqis will be killed and wounded, and hundreds of billions more dollars will be spent before the United States and its handful of coalition forces are eventually forced to withdraw.
The reason I identify with Celente so much – besides our New York roots and passion for RANTING – is he clearly performs his service with as much an altruistic motive as anything else. The Trends Journal is the lowest priced subscription I hold, but easily the best – although Jim Willie’s is pretty amazing as well. In fact, Celente advertises that he will work with those of lesser financial means to help them afford it, as he is far more driven by the desire to PROTECT people than PROFIT from them.
The next time you see him give an interview, take the time out to listen, as nine times of ten he will say something relevant to YOUR future. And if you have $99 to spare, I highly recommend a one-year subscription to the Trends Journal.
Financial analysis newsletters come a dime a dozen – although I like to believe mine is well-differentiated – but analysis of the bigger picture is equally vital to comprehending beyond the markets. Few have the competency – and credentials of putting such information into perspective, and NONE more so than Gerald Celente. There are so few people I truly respect in this business, and he is amongst in the top tier of my short list.