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There is a new “official” policy in effect to screen flights to the U.S. (especially from West Africa) for people who exhibit Ebola-like symptoms, such as a fever or the flu.  Have we gone too far with this?  I remember a story my father told me when I was very young.  His family was immigrating to America from Russia and he was only eight or nine years old.  He couldn’t sleep the night before they departed, so his older brother stayed up all night watching over him.  He had red eyes from lack of sleep.  When they tried to enter the ship, his older brother was not allowed to accompany the rest of the family and had to remain behind, all alone.  My father remembers watching him at the dock, tears in his eyes as the rest of the family embarked to America.  Back then, pre-WW1, if you were sick, you didn’t get into this country.  Standards have slipped since then, wouldn’t ya say.

I am so sick and tired of all of the “paid-for” newsletter subscriptions who try and predict the price of gold and silver and the timing of the up and down moves.  Isn’t it obvious by now that Technical Analysis doesn’t work in these manipulated markets.  No one gets it right, short-term.  Even some of my favorite writers are off the mark, including the likes of Jim Sinclair, Richard Russell and yes, even Larry Edelson.

The only conclusion I can draw from this is that you cannot, with a high degree of accuracy, predict gold and silver’s performance in the short-term.  That is why Miles Franklin stands out as one of the few, in a large industry of dealers and newsletter writers, that has steadfastly presented gold and silver as “insurance” not as “for profit” items.  We stress the big picture and the end game.  Gold and silver will win and paper currencies will lose, but to try and time the move is fruitless.  As Bill Holter often writes, the straw that breaks the camel’s back is just one event removed and you have to be pro-active and early here.

The one thing I am sure of these days is that for gold and silver to resume their upward moves, a bottom must first be established.  But trying to time it, or even decide what “number” the bottom will be, in advance, is warned.  It seems likely that the bottom is close (in time and in price) but we will not know we have reached it until it is in the rear-view mirror.  And please remember, all of the “shorts” on COMEX, the fuel that has pulled down the price of the physicals, must eventually be covered.  All that selling must turn into frantic buying, once the bottom is in and the up-move has begun.

Many of our clients understand this.  2014 will be a very successful business year for Miles Franklin.  August and September have been very strong – in spite of, or perhaps because of the falling prices.  I guess we have educated our readership over the last 13 years, that owning gold and silver is a good thing to do and that the current prices are simply too cheap to avoid.  Don’t worry about a bottom – the value is here now and the timing of the turnaround is unknown.

When people like Russell, Sinclair and Edelson (to name but a few) miss the mark with their timing, I say just forget about it.  Buy what you think you need, (physicals only, of course) put it away, and the day will come when you will be glad you did.  And don’t rush it.  The longer it takes, the better.  Any sane person is not in a hurry to cash in on their life or fire insurance policy.  And neither should you be in a hurry to cash in on your financial insurance policy.  But it could well be necessary and sooner than you think.

On second thought, let’s give Richard Russell another chance.  He was my first true mentor in this business, back in the early 80s.  Yesterday, on King World News, Richard proclaimed that gold and silver have bottomed!  He said…

Gold – I can’t prove it yet but I believe the last decline in gold knocked out the last of the gold bugs and gave gold, technically, a clean slate. I believe we saw the ultimate bottom of the gold bear market on Friday, and (yesterday) the whole universe of gold is higher, and closing at its high. Everything I have said about gold is also true about silver. I believe this is the time to invest in gold and silver if you have not done so already.

If I am correct, gold should act like the release of a compressed spring. Gold above 1300 would make me even more certain of my opinion, and gold above 1350 would represent a major buy signal. If you can’t handle physical gold, take a position in CEF, which represents physical silver and gold and is located in Canada.

Let me digress for awhile. I believe a new monetary system is in our future. China and Russia are combining to move the center of gold activity away from the US. Who has been buying gold as the faithful dropped out of the picture? All of the central banks, and particularly China. The direction of international power has coincided with the flow of gold. In its frenzy to pressure down the price of gold, the Federal Reserve has handed China a remarkable gift – the gift is cheap gold. But as of today, I believe we are seeing the process of cheap gold becoming more expensive gold. I’m betting that within six months physical gold will be scarce and hard to find. In a sentence, I’m betting that the long bear market is gold has ended.

King World News, October 7, 2014

 It would be a relief for many of our readers if Sir Richard is correct.

Check out the following interview with Jim Rickards.  It covers a topic I write about frequently and it’s the basis behind our view that the dollar is about to lose its Petrodollar standard.  Nothing is more bullish for gold and silver – and terrifying for the unsuspecting American public.  And then watch the second short video below of the new military hardware that is now on the market.

Jim Rickards: Obama’s Abandoning the Saudis for Iran and Dooming the Petrodollar

http://www.caseyresearch.com/go/uabgn-2/MFL

My military sources report that those who wish to drive Israel into the sea should prepare themselves for a watery grave instead.

Have a look at this short video.

– Dan Friedman