On the one hand, when the euro weakens and the dollar strengthens, it puts pressure on gold. But then again, when the euro weakens, gold rises in euros and brings European buyers to the table. As you can see, in the following chart, in euro terms, gold is close to an all-time high.
In the following chart, you can see that the price has moved back above its 50-day moving average for the first time since mid-March (the blue line). Silver has struggled to stay above $27.50 and is currently sitting at $27.87. This could be the beginning of a breakout from the huge head and shoulders formation that has brought silver down since early March.
UBS says the likely move to more monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve should support gold prices, and forecast a price of $1,700 an ounce in a month.
UBS lifted its one-month forecast to $1,700, up from $1,550, and boosted its three-month forecast to $1,750 from $1,600.
As much as I enjoy bullish predictions for gold and silver, I still believe that they do all of us a dis-service because they focus us on the daily “noise” and the short-term. Why worry about the short-term when the end game is already set in stone.
In today’s daily, Jim Sinclair now ups his prediction and says $3500 – $4000 and $4500 are now in the market’s focus. Alf Fields, Sinclair’s favorite gold technical analyst, had this to say:
The bottom line is that we now have a really strong probability that the correction which started at $1913 on 23 August 2011 has been completed both in terms of Elliott waves and also in terms of time elapsed. If this is correct, the gold price should soon be expressing itself in violent upside action as it moves into the third of third wave, which is still targeted to reach $4500.
If you can hold on for the next 36 months, you will be a BIG winner! So don’t get upset when Larry Edelson says gold is going to $1450 and don’t get too giddy when UBS says gold will hit $1700 in a month. Keep your focus on the end game; it’s not that far off. I’m putting MY MONEY on Sinclair and Fields!