When a second Greek bailout was first discussed in October (the “slam dunk” that never occurred) and March (the DEFAULT no one admits to), I vehemently prognosticated such proposals would COLLAPSE, but as usual, my views were ignored, as essentially everything “RANTING CASSANDRA” has said since the turn of the Century.
Lo and behold, the Greek “bailout” was simply an unratified, coerced “agreement” to increase Greece’s debt in return for cancerous “austerity measures.” Moreover, just one month later, “THE PEOPLE HAVE SPOKEN,” booting out ALL politicians remotely supporting these terms, and on June 17th, the planned “re-elections” could definitively seal Europe’s fate. It is expected that any new Greek government will reject such “bailouts,” and my expectation is they will not only secede from the Euro currency, but renege on all debt…
Of course, Greece is not the only nation in this position. I fully expect Global Meltdown III – i.e. “the Big One” – to break out later this year, calling into question the commitment to unity – and debt service – of all the remaining PIIGS, plus hopelessly bankrupt FRANCE, care of its recent election of a “neo-Communist” as President…
Now that European politics have turned – and with them, a “RISING NATIONALISTIC TIDE,” – my call for the introduction of new (or in many cases, “old”) currencies are becoming more “MAINSTREAM.”
Frankly, it matters not if the Euro Zone is “ready” – nor how much “secret aid” they send to prop up Greece a few more weeks, as it is highly likely several PIIGS will leave the Euro in the coming years, perhaps by the end of 2012 if Global Meltdown III rages out of control…
Now that such views are being openly discussed – how can they NOT be, given the Greek “re-elections” are just three weeks away? – I’m starting to see articles about “alternatives” to a voluntary or involuntary Greek exit from the Euro currency. It’s truly amazing how people fail to realize you can only be PREGNANT or NOT PREGNANT – not partly so – even when nine months down the road, ready to burst…
The above article is attributed to the “Deutsche Bank’s economics team” – quite ironic, as the fate of Deutsche Bank could be decided by this event. These imbiciles “see the potential for a third path – of running a Greek parallel currency to the Euro (which they dub “GEURO”) to represent government issued IOUs to meet current payment obligations.” Sorry for the strong language, but in some cases it’s difficult to avoid.
Yes, “Wall Street analysis,” which NO ONE is more familiar with then myself, having worked as a sell-side analyst for seven years at Salomon Smith Barney. In layman’s terms, the “Deutsche Bank economics team” is trying to differentiate itself from its peers, so it can receive more Institutional Investor votes – and thus, get paid bigger bonuses. It matters not if they make sense – or clients make money – so long as they say something bold and unique.
Heck, I remember an analyst named Fred Leuffer at – of all places, Bear Stearns – who made a career of forecasting crashing oil prices, simply to be known as the “token bear.” He was completely, utterly WRONG, and since retiring in 2005, oil has risen from $20/bbl to $150/bbl. I’m sure he got many votes for his boldness, but nonetheless is remembered in our space as a cartoon character sell-out. Fred, enjoy your lavish retirement – but as you’re sipping martinis and puffing cigars, think of how many BILLIONS your clients lost listening to your dis-ingenuine advice.
Sorry for the tangent, but that story is quite personal to me. As for Deutsche Bank’s economics team – which should recuse itself from such analysis given its blatant CONFLICT OF INTEREST – it is hard to tell how much of its analysis is rooted in the aforementioned “posturing,” and how much in actual belief. Frankly, I hope it’s more the former, as if not, these are some of the dumbest “analysts” on Earth.
Once again, I am not using rocket science here. The idea of “parallel currencies” – or my favorite, SDRs, or Special Drawing Rights – is as ridiculous as believing 23 disparate nations can co-exist with the same currency (and compliance terms). Under the “Deutsche Bank economics team” theory, the entire concept of leaving the Euro would be ignored, once again “pretending” things have changed when they really haven’t. You see, a Greek – or other PIIG – exit from the Euro necessitates accelerated inflation and near-term chaos, but under this “alternative” proposal, they would still be “secretly” part of the system.
It won’t work, of course – nor even be formally discussed – although TPTB will do everything in their power to “kick the can down the road” as far as possible. Ultimately, that is all such proposals amount to – in other words attempts to avoid the unavoidable. In REALITY, however, the only cure for the cancer of fiat currency is letting it collapse and replacing it with REAL MONEY. This is EXACTLY what has happened in every such instance throughout history, and what ultimately will occur in the coming years, GLOBALLY.
In other words, “GOLD STANDARD OR BUST!”
PROTECT YOURSELF, and do it NOW!
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