WEAK PAYROLL NUMBERS PUSH GLOBAL STOCKS LOWER AND BONDS HIGHER – IT NOW LOOKS LIKE SUMMER BOUNCE HAS ENDED – GOLD MINERS INDEX COULD ACHIEVE BULLISH BREAKOUT ON RISING GOLD AND SILVER PRICES – John Murphy
As currency after currency weakens, the world will turn increasingly to gold.
– Richard Russell
If I am not mistaken, this is the third time in the last six months that Uncommon Wisdom’s Larry Edelson has written an article stating that, “Although I am bullish long-term, I wouldn’t be buying here.”
On August 29, he wrote:
Well, gold did soar to as high as $1,917, but importantly, it failed to close above that resistance level, and then – as I have been expecting – gold swooned, big time. Shedding more than $200 in a mere three trading days, about an 11% plunge.
More importantly, gold also gave me a very important sell signal when it closed below the $1,768 level. That action now confirms what I’ve been suspecting and looking for.
How low could gold go? I believe gold can fall back to the following support levels: $1,611, $1,567, $1,433, $1,386 and $1,359.
Each time Larry warned that the bottom was about to fall out and these numbers would be tested, he was wrong. I suspect he will be wrong once again. It has been my contention for a long time that you CANNOT use technical analysis and charts, as Larry does, to predict the movement of gold. Technical analysis and Elliott Wave analysis simply does NOT work with gold. Why is that? Because gold is heavily manipulated and gold does NOT function in a “free market” environment. Also, and most important, the driver of gold’s price has become the PHYSICAL market (in Asia) and not the PAPER market in New York, which is what Larry uses (Comex) to make his predictions.
Big money in India, China, Russia and the Middle East are dumping dollars to buy gold and silver and they enter in and buy every time there is a pullback. That is why the “corrections” are short-lived and the price bounces right back quickly. Granted, as Larry wrote, gold did shed $200 in three days, but here we are, just a week later, and testing $1,900 once again.
Larry’s model isn’t working the way he thinks it should. He may point out the 200-point drop but I point out the 175-point recovery, which took but one week! I like Larry’s column, and he is a fine writer, but if I followed his advice, I’d have been afraid to buy gold since last spring when it was selling for $1,350.
If you are inclined to be frightened or fear the worst, this kind of warning of an impending correction will keep you on the sidelines and that has proven to be bad advice for the last three years. Larry is focusing on $1,600, $1,500 or even $1,300 and I am salivating over the prospects of $2,000 gold shortly and $2,300 to $2,500 by early next spring. I will continue to accumulate while Larry sits on his ass, waiting for the big pullback that may never materialize.
Advice like Larry’s makes you think like a precious metals trader. It turns it into a game – buy at the very bottom only! It’s fun, and profitable to buy at the bottom, but come on, how often do you actually do it? Andy Hoffman did, recently, when he placed an order with me with spot at $1,703. He hit the bottom. He wasn’t waiting for $1,600 or lower. Now he sits with a juicy $181 an ounce profit while Larry’s posse is still waiting for $1,600.
Stop thinking like a precious metals trader. Stop relying on technical analysis. Let the trend be your friend and focus on the big picture. Gold is going higher, much higher. Accumulate ounces now, because in the big picture, gold is very cheap. Gold is still hundreds of dollars an ounce BELOW its “inflation adjusted” high in 1980.
As much as I love gold and love it at this price, I love silver more. $70 silver next spring is not pie-in-the-sky. Do yourself a favor and subscribe to Ted Butler, or David Morgan, and get the inside scoop on silver. Gold will preserve your buying power. Silver will make you rich.
Here’s one last minute addition from Andy Hoffman:
It looks like the culmination of 40 years of stupidity and corruption is indeed commencing NOW, just as the “summer doldrums” come to their end (a summer in which the average global stock market declined 30%). Gold has passed $1,900 no less than six times in the past 24 hours, reaching an ALL-TIME HIGH of $1,920/oz (closer to $2,100/oz in the REAL, PHYSICAL world) at 4 AM EST, before yet another Cartel smash.
DESPITE yet another gold margin increase, this time announced by the Shanghai Exchange Friday afternoon, gold spent the entirety of Monday at or above $1,900/oz, as well as the entirety of Asian trading hours there as well. The DESPERATION of the TPTB is TANGIBLE, like a thick fog blanketing the markets, as they KNOW that the whole system can (and WILL) collapse at any moment. In fact, just minutes ago the Swiss government effectively PEGGED the Franc to the Euro in an insane attempt to debase the last remaining “strong” currency (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/swiss-franc-collapses-7-swiss-national-bank-fix-chf-eur-and-debase-currency), and the PPT is DESPERATELY trying to hold Dow Futures above the seemingly magical ROUND NUMBER of 11,000, representing just a 2% decline compared to the 6% decline we have seen in Europe.
The aforementioned gold smackdown, as noted above, occurred AFTER TWO FULL DAYS of Asian trading above $1,900, with the CARTEL attacking viciously with a nearly $50/oz hit in ONE MINUTE, and roughly $1.30/oz for silver during that same brief moment.
In fact, I can only remember a hit so vicious during the SUNDAY NIGHT PAPER SILVER MASSACRE on May 1st, when silver was hit for $6 in the first 13 minutes of SUNDAY night Asian trading, whilst China slept in for a holiday.
That attack failed within months, but each successive attack has failed nearly instantaneously, as I believe this one will as well. We have reached “Manipulation Saturation”, which will unmercifully run over the Cartel (and possibly the PPT) this Fall.