SATURDAY WRAP-UP 2/4/2012
1940! 1940! 1940!
…in ten years of watching the NFP report publication – and subsequent PM attacks – I have never seen anything like yesterday’s “FEBRUARY NFP FARCE,” a combination of BLS data manipulation and PAPER gold and silver attacks rivaled only by the blatancy, viciousness, and desperation of other key “named storm” days like “D-DAY,” the “SUNDAY NIGHT PAPER SILVER MASSACRE”, “OPERATION PM ANNIHILATION I,” and “OPERATION PM ANNIHILATION II.”
Let’s start with the NFP report itself, which per the commentary in Friday’s RANT, has drawn as much fact-based skepticism of any I can remember in my 23-year career. Each month the NFP data becomes more suspect, as manipulation requirements increase. Cheaper labor costs in, and U.S. outsourcing to, the Eastern Hemisphere has caused a secular employment decline, augmented by building cyclical pressures that promise to get a lot worse before they get better. Just the slightest drop in CONFIDENCE will derail President Obama’s re-election campaign, and potentially the GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM to boot. Below are four articles analyzing Friday’s “FEBRUARY NFP FARCE,” each describing the ridiculousness of reporting such a high number versus the fact-based expectations.
However, even the most damning arguments in those articles cannot hold a candle to some of the other inconsistencies between the published NFP figures and reality. To start, read the title of the below article, let alone its conclusions. To summarize, during a month when a RECORD amount of people left the labor force due to essentially permanent unemployment, the government wants us to believe job creation was STRONG, even after a HORRIBLE holiday retail season and near record layoffs in the hallowed banking industry.
Unfortunately, even the draconian title and ramifications of that article don’t do justice to the data itself, per the chart below. Yes, look at the circled VERTICAL LINE at the end of the data series representing an EXPLOSION in permanently unemployed during January, a so-called “blowout month” for job creation.
Better still, watch the four-minute video below from Charles Biderman of TrimTabs, the pre-eminent expert on BLS data chicanery. I would liken TrimTabs’ expertise in real employment trends to that of the real inflation figures calculated by John Williams’ Shadow Stats. In it, he notes that ACTUAL JOBS DECLINED by 2.9 MILLION in the past two months compared to the 446,000 job increase reported by the BLS, due to “arbitrary” seasonal adjustments never explained to the public.
In this article, you will also see how payroll withholding taxes haven’t BUDGED higher in recent months – in fact, to the contrary – as well as how ridiculously high recent BLS job-creation numbers were compared to the TrimTabs expectations.
Better yet, the article below from Jesse’s Café Americain describes exactly what I mean by changes in “statistical methodology,” demonstrating how both the Bush and Obama Administration have obviously been reducing previous job reports – going back as far as TEN YEARS – and putting the lost jobs in current reports, than conveniently deleting the data from public records, such as what was done this month with the fictional “Birth/Death” jobs model:
The Non-Farm Payrolls Report: Air Brushing History – Nominal Work Force for Nominal GDP -jessecrossroadscafe.blogspot.com
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As for Europe, things get worse each day, as we countdown to the first PIIGS default, and all the ensuing political, economic, and social CHAOS. You saw the rumors of a Papademos ouster yesterday, after just three short, futile months in office, and now it appears the never-to-be-completed “Greek debt negotiations” are approaching the “DEFCON 1” level.
The fact remains Greece does not have the cash to fund its March 20th €13.5 billion bond payment, and in order to get the €130 billion bailout it needs to survive a few short months, will have to submit to draconian ECB austerity demands OR give up its sovereignty, neither of which is likely to occur. And now that the “Greek debt negotiations” are talking about write-offs upwards of 80% of the nation’s debt, can the ISDA really get away with not calling it a default? Even if they don’t, the markets WILL eventually price in a default, crushing the CDS market FOREVER, as well as ALL banks and sovereigns tied up within it.
DO NOT be surprised if a SUNDAY NIGHT SPECIAL regarding draconian issues related to Greece occurs any week now, and when it does, you can bet the current PPT-inspired market lethargy will be with us no more!
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SUNDAY MORNING COMMENTARY 2/5/2012
As I awoke with thoughts of the Super Bowl, and hopefully a fourth World Championship for my NY Giants, it appears that thoughts in other parts of the world are less benign. The DEADLINE for Greek bankruptcy may be March 20th (when they owe an unfunded €13.5 billion bond payment), but the deadline for implementation of a pre-emptive bailout is far sooner, as it takes time for all prospective parties (the Greek government, ECB, and numerous banks) to agree to the terms.
Such “Greek debt negotiations” have had the appearance of being dead in the water for some time now, yet political and media PROPAGANDA keeps telling us “all’s well.” If I were Greek, I would staunchly oppose the essential loss of sovereignty that will be the penalty for taking more “blood money” from Europe’s evil bankers, and that’s precisely what millions of Greeks are thinking as well, including those rioting as we speak in front of the Greek President’s home.
Remember, it was Goldman Sachs that structured Greece’s debt in a manner that disguised its true size, and thus Goldman Sachs – which recently had one of their own employees, Lucas Papademos, installed as Greece’s Prime Minister – that is most responsible for putting the nation in its current state of hopeless insolvency.
Yet another round of “emergency meetings” were held this weekend, and not only did Greece essentially thumb its nose at European austerity demands, but its Finance Minister is making himself scarce, focused more on consolidating power AFTER Greece defaults than trying to prevent such an event. Sounds like he’s a sharp guy, as clearly default is inevitable, and likely with it TPTB’s thinly veiled veneer that all’s well.
Remember what Jim Sinclair urgently noted last week about the ISDA’s hope of getting away with not calling a 70% Greek write-down a “default?” Well let’s see what happens when 70% become 100%! Remember, just five U.S. banks – JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup – have written or purchased 97% of the world’s QUADRILLION DOLLARS worth of derivatives, and obviously their cumulative insolvency would become front page news if Greece voluntarily defaults.
And when the HEAD of the European Commission states that Europe’s patience with Greece has run out, and thus default likely, you can bet the odds are shifting heavily AGAINST the bankers, in favor of the “new world” governments that will eventually take over a debt liquidated, poverty-stricken Europe in the coming years.
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MONDAY MORNING COMMENTARY 2/6/2012
Monday morning, and my joy over the Giants’ brilliant Super Bowl win has already died, care of more of the same CARTEL GARBAGE we have been treated to for the past ten years. You see, when the Cartel gains a temporary upper hand, which they did Friday with their carefully premeditated “FEBRUARY NFP FARCE” PM assault, it matters not what the “news” of the day is, only how many speculators they can drive out of PAPER gold and silver investments with incessant naked shorting, particularly at the four KEY ATTACK TIMES when essentially 99% of all PM losses occur. Thankfully, like the Giants, the PHYSICAL gold and silver markets are a WINNING FRANCHISE, while the Cartel is a LOSING FRANCHISE, much like the Giants long-time cross-town rivals, the New York Jets.
Throughout Sunday, the news was abuzz of yet another “deadline” for the soon-to-fail “Greek debt negotiations,” following a failed weekend meeting. You know, the type of event that in a free market would have gold prices SOARING, particularly in Europe where tens, or even hundreds of millions could be facing near-term bank closures or, worse yet, hyperinflation as their nations are forced out of the Euro currency.
Each day, it becomes clearer that Greece is an imminent goner, but each day the GLOBAL PPT props up stocks and attacks PAPER gold and silver to maintain the veneer that such an event is already “priced” into the market.
OBVIOUSLY the ISDA will get its way and avoid terming the default for what it is, and OBVIOUSLY there will be no ramifications to a global banking system awash in Greek debt and credit default swaps, as well as that of the other PIIGS. OBVIOUSLY the global economy has nowhere to go but up, and OBVIOUSLY U.S. employment is SURGING.
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