Before getting to my main topic, Harry Dent’s monetary delusion, we have been barraged with information over the last two weeks. Normally this time of year we do not see much in the way of news whether it be financial or geopolitical, not so this year! In just the last two weeks we experienced some very strange combinations of news and actions. It was just last Monday when I connected many dots for you. China changed collateral rules, crashing oil has impaired low credit shale debt which is spreading to other high yield credits, Congress snuck $303 trillion worth of derivatives on to taxpayer’s shoulders, Russia began testing their alternative SWIFT system and CME/COMEX announced wide collars beginning Dec. 22 for metals trading.
Here we are a whopping 5 business days later and a whole new set of data points are available to chew on. First, the IMF seems to be targeting the dollar in their gun sights. Will there be a try at supplanting the dollar with SDR’s? Another new set of sanctions has been placed on Russia which are a cut and dry declaration of war (Congress). Also, very quietly two more things happened last week. The Volcker rules which would have mandated higher capital ratios at banks were postponed, again, why do you suppose this was? Why can’t the U.S. “allow” marking held assets to market? Why can’t we agree to capital ratios similar to those the rest of the world already agreed to …4 years ago? Why can’t we play the game like the rest of the world wants to?
We also learned Australia would like to have their 80 tons of gold, purportedly held in London, audited. How odd is this? Australia does not trust London? What a turn of events, as I understand it, the Brits look at the Australians as “criminals” based on how (and “who”) the country was originally born. Sorry, but I view this piece of news as quite humorous, were Australia to join other recent European nations and ask for repatriation of their gold … hilarious would be more like it!
…Moving along, I must take Harry “Mr. Deflation” Dent to task regarding his adamant call of $250-$400 gold. Normally I try not to call names or disparage people for their views but what he is doing is scaring people away from their only avenue of safety. The only word I can think of which describes him in my mind is “DELUSIONAL”. I would also add “dangerously” before the word delusional because following his advice in my opinion will place you personally in grave danger. Harry did an interview with Greg Hunter last Tuesday, please watch this from about minutes 7-20. The first seven minutes I was thinking to myself, “He sounds logical”. Beginning at about the seven minute mark, he totally lost it in the logic department. Greg asked him about his prediction of gold going to $700 and Harry said yes, “at a minimum,” he then went on to forecast $250-$400 as a hard bottom over the next several years because of “deflation”. He contends gold can ONLY do well in an inflationary environment and uses the crash of 2008 as his example when gold went from north of $1,000 down to $690. I am here to tell you “deflation” is THE BEST environment to hold gold. The classic example of course being from 1929-1939. Back then (until 1933), gold and the dollar were interchangeable. You could go into a bank with dollars and leave with gold or vice versa. Dollars were simply receipts for gold. If you recall, gold was actually revalued higher by 69.33% in 1933 after it was “called in” (confiscated). The public was paid $20.67 per ounce …and presto, gold was revalued to $35. So in the greatest “deflation” in U.S. history, gold outperformed dollars and dollars outperformed everything else. Dollars were considered “as good as gold” until they were devalued, the unequivocal “king” of money was gold, NOT dollars. It is also interesting THE best investment of that time period were mining shares because of the leverage they had to gold itself but is a story for another day.
This is the core flaw (among many) to Harry Dent’s logic, he says dollars will “disappear” through defaults and bankruptcies. Yes, this is correct but these dollars are issued BY a bankrupt entity…! The dollar is not only no longer a “gold receipt,” they are the OPPOSITE of gold. Gold has value because “it is”. Dollars on the other hand have value because the government says they do, a bankrupt government! Gold is no one’s liability, dollars are the liability of a bankrupt issuer. I would also like to point out, the U.S. was not “broke” in 1929, we were a surplus nation. The U.S. carries a habitual trade deficit and has funded debt greater than 100% of GDP, if we were not the issuer of the reserve currency these two facts would have already relegated us to “banana republic” status! So, two very material facts differ now from the last time we experienced deflation, we were on much more solid footing in both trade and finance …AND gold was what backed our money and gave it value!
Dent also went on to say “Russia and China are dumb money” and they are the only ones buying gold …everyone else is selling it. Really? He is missing a huge point, there is physical gold and then there is paper gold. No Harry, “everyone else is not selling gold”. The physical market is showing all the signs of being very tight. GOFO is negative, we see backwardation in Asia and refiners have been running flat out to meet demand. From what I see at Miles Franklin, we are getting 200 purchases for every sale request. The only place “selling” is taking place is on the paper exchanges …where you do not need physical metal in order to sell it, all you need is collateral. (As a side note, China sold over $100 billion worth of U.S. Treasuries last month)!
One huge error Dent is making is not distinguishing between real metal and paper contracts. He very well may be correct, COMEX gold could possibly go to $250 per ounce …or even zero for that matter, but, this will be accompanied by the real metal approaching “priceless”. If he is correct about a financial collapse (I believe he is), he is very dangerously (to the public) telling people to sell THE ONLY insurance policy with the ability to actually “pay out” when it will be needed! How can dollars which are issued by a mathematically bankrupt entity and at the epicenter of the coming leveraged panic become worth more? History has shown time after time going back to the days of Rome, early China and before, when a government goes too far into debt …they print or debase their currency in order to make the debt cheaper. Governments cannot debase gold and gold cannot default, these are two reasons (among others) that gold IS money and why governments detest it.
I am sure you have heard the old saying “cash is king” when it comes to financial collapses, this is very true. The important thing for you to understand is what “cash” actually is. Cash is money, “money” which cannot default. Cash during normal times (when confidence is high) can include “currency” but we are not talking about normal times here. We are talking about a global margin call leading to a global bankruptcy… and in it, many currencies will also “go broke”.
For further proof of Harry Dent’s delusion, he suggests people move money balances to brokers and out of the banks. Really? Do you really believe the brokers will stay open if the banks are closed? I haven’t checked recently but SIPC had even less reserves to coverage than FDIC …and they do not have a direct line of funding to the Treasury. Next, what sort of “cash” investments is Harry Dent talking about? Money markets? Commercial paper? Unless he is speaking about T-bills and only direct obligations of the Treasury he is pointing investors in front of another oncoming train!
I for one just do not get it. Harry Dent says “history proves that gold does poorly during deflation” but only uses recent history as proof. He says “look at all the panics we’ve been through and yet the dollar always went higher,” I would suggest that “control” was not lost …which it certainly will during a global and systemic margin call! All I can say is history is full of examples where gold was revalued higher during deflationary panics …what is different now is for the first time in history, no money issued by any government on the planet has metals backing it. This has been the case since 1971 and as I said, the very first time in human history where no currency, anywhere, had gold backing.
Let me finish with this, it is clear to me Harry Dent does not understand what “money” really is. He is confusing money and currency which many times do act similarly but NOT during times where confidence breaks. He is also very dangerously suggesting to move to brokers in lieu of banks with cash balances, does he not believe broker after broker will fail in the scenario he is suggesting? He says he uses Scott Trade as his broker, does he really believe they will stay solvent ALONG with all of his “cash” investments? Does he not understand that when you deposit money with a bank or broker you will have risk the “end borrower” will default? Even if he is correct and the dollar does strengthen versus foreign currencies (I do not believe so), this still does not guarantee the “borrower of your funds” will be able to pay. Does he not understand what “money markets” actually are and what they are comprised of? Please remember this and never forget it, when you “deposit” into a bank or broker and place it into a CD or a money market, you ARE LENDING the money to “someone”. If you put it into Treasuries, you are lending to the government. If you hold gold in your hand, it is yours. It does not matter who in the world goes broke which includes individuals, corporations or governments. Gold has value because it is no one else’s liability and cannot default. It is THIS very truth as the reason why gold does better than all other currencies during a time of default and currency crisis. Under Harry Dent’s scenario of deflation, confidence will be at its lowest level. Capital will seek the safest money available in stampede fashion. Dollars have absolutely no traits of being money, they are a currency and a failing one at that!
So, that about does it for news from me until after the first of the year. Next week I plan to pen a piece which so many of you have asked me for. I will try to write a fictional account of “The Day After” and what types of hardships and events I believe might happen after the markets seize up. If nothing else, it will be entertaining to me while writing it. Hopefully for you the reader, something, anything you may have forgotten in your preparations may get jarred loose in your mind and acted on. By no means will this missive be all encompassing as a full book is necessary but hopefully you get more out of it than pure fantasy!
Wishing you all the best in this coming year!
I also watched his interview with Greg Hunter. He makes some good points about the big picture…until he gets to gold and silver. Then again, his track record isn’t all that stellar.
nor his logic.
Agree 100 percent!
Thanks for all your thoughts and insights for 2014. I feel I am better off knowing the truth and being able to help my family get through the upcoming crisis.
You have been a blessing to us.
Happy Hollidays to you and your family.
thanks Farrell, same to you!
I’m with you on Harry Dent’s dangerous advice.
One small point regarding: “Gold has value because “it is”.”
I believe gold has value for only one reason. Not because it is; not because in costs $xxx to get it out of the ground; not because you can hold it, etc.
The only reason gold has value is because people around the world (the market) believe it has value.
I’m betting it will continue to have value in the marketplace and in fact a much higher value in the future.
gold is no one’s liability.
Yes, Harry Dent does not understand the differences between money and currency.
In 1980 we also had real deflation where 50 ounces of gold or 1,000 ounces of Silver would buy a median home outright (no mortgage).
DOW/GOLD of 1:1 in 1980.
DOW/Silver of 17:1 in 1980.
These are incredible gains during times of real deflation.
we did not have deflation in 1980, we had nearly the highest inflation rate this country has ever experienced.
We had high inflation of the paper currency in 1980.
We had real deflation in assets vs. real money i.e. Gold and Silver in 1980.
yes, correct AW!
hi Bill. I appreciate what you write and how you write it and read every word. Today I read your reference to Australia asking for their gold repatriation. Austria has done this. Has Australia done this as well? If not, then one word miswritten out of tens of thousands will not deter me from reading (I hope) tens of thousands more.
Keep up the great work. It is a true service. Enjoy you holiday respite. Dickson
thanks Dickson, no, not a misspell, AUSTRALIA (as in down under) has requested an audit of gold held in London. Can you imagine them repatriating from “Mother London”?
I haven’t heard or read anything here in OZ about the govt requesting their 80 tons of gold back from the UK.
About 6 weeks ago I checked out the Reserve bank gold holdings.
80 tons in UK and 100 kg (thats not a misprint) at home. Standby for nationalising of mining companies !!
As for Dent ???…listened to the interview last week. Whether he is delusional or not Gold is still in downward mode ( manipulation or not…i think not as there is no basis (pun intended) a la Weiner.
Much to the chagrin of gold speculators its price could very well get to $700 as that is the 100% fibonacci retracement level. I AM NOT PREDICTING THAT, just saying its a possibility especially if it breaks below $1130
I am heading down for a surf !
Merry Xmas Bill
Here is info for that audit request:
Realistically, Australia is far off from any repatriation from London. From the Rothschild standpoint, it’s just another vassal state like Canada or Japan. Unless Australia ends up officially becoming a Chinese colony, I would predict odds of any such repatriation infinitely negligible.
thanks for the link. Yes, as I said, “can you imagine them repatriating gold from Mother London?”.
This could be one more dot coming dimly into view, that could very well explain the connection of some previous dots, between these global signposts.
There was a multi country conference held in Yekaterinberg Russia on June 15-16, 2009 that involved the members of BRICS and SCO nations. At this meeting a communique to the USA, requested the Americans to reform their banks (especially the IMF & world bank) and cease the banks market manipulations, and further requesting a timeline to accomplish this. A five year deadline was suggested. The USA ignored this communication.
Well, guess what? The five years is up January 01, 2015. Could this be why we see Russia bringing forward the active date, for their international settlement system? Something to mull on over the holidays. Link below. Have a Merry Christmas Bill, your family too. Cheers.
could be, Merry Christmas to you!
Greg Hunter does not use good judgement in whom he interviews. Anything goes.
Harry Dent is an opposing view, nothing wrong with an opposing view if there is logic to support it. Harry Dent’s logic is grossly flawed! …A funny thought, “anything goes” …he’s had me on and will be back on again tomorrow. I am sure we will discuss Harry Dent a little bit?
Bill, I love your writings, have made comments to you with respect, and I hope have never have been rude. However, I have to ask how can you ignore the dollar strength? You (with many writings) and others earlier this year called for an immediate dollar collapse. The opposite has happened, and of course gold is down. Now what if the dollar (for whatever reason) keeps going up? Calling for the end of the world (financially) is a binary event. Even you admit that you cannot understand how things have maintained themselves for the past 3 years. Why could they not maintain for 3 more years?
One last non gold thought. You live in Texas and should be able to monitor the oil employment situation. I have family in San Antonio and was stunned what I heard last night. They are not seeing any drop off in oil field employment, just shifts in location. They even reported to me job openings still being posted.
no offense taken. I did not expect the dollar to take out the 84-85 level but it has because of Abenomics and a dysfunctional Europe. Gold is approximately trading where it was 1 year ago with a higher dollar. One could say this shows relative strength as gold is thus higher in other currencies from a year ago. The bottom line is this, gold and silver are only priced where they are because of COMEX and LBMA paper games. This has drawn out excess demand, the game will end when the “(un)official” supplies run out as current supply cannot meet demand. As for oil, Texas employment is affected by price but not as sensitive as shale projects because production costs are much lower.
The paper “gold price” has been manipulated down to US$1170 today and you can safely rest assured that physical buying is exploding.
Does Harry Dent believe that, as the “price” declines toward his US$250, there will be LESS buying of physical metal? And perhaps more selling?
He thinks like Buffett: if it doesn’t produce “yield” (denominated in paper currency) it is not an worthwhile “investment”, if something declines you sell it and if it rises you chase it higher…
Only good if the issuing entity is SOLVENT.
Exactly Kredit, “cash” must remain solvent to have value as “money”.
I stand by my earlier comment that all this “smoke” is to ensure that both Gold and Silver finish 2014 BELOW the 12/31/13 closing price to PROVE that for the 2nd straight year, both are DOWN, and therefore are an inferior place for cash compared to “paper plays”. The deception keeps piling up- don’t fall for it! This is “Wonderland” stuff.
maybe so, but it will prove nothing other than stupidity when all is said and done.
That sounds just about right. $1200 to “prove” that gold’s going down. $250-$400 to “prove” that it’s a barbaric relic. Just like the powers-that-be patiently explained to the masses all along. (If this keeps going the powers-that-be will pay me to take their barbarous relic and then my appetite for it will finally be sated. 🙂 )
It’s interesting to see Dent flog the stock market to the great unwashed yet again. As if the masses still don’t buy the stock market story. Perhaps mainstream media’s persuasive power ain’t what it used to be when it comes to conning the masses into buying dumb things.
Dent also needs to add India and a few other countries to his “dumb money” list. Dent’s list represents about 2 billion people.
Thank you Bill. I needed a laugh to start my day and you delivered.
ur welcome Don.
Glad you are here on a dismal day.
Merry Xmas !
please stop worrying about “dismal days” if you understand the end game.
Not exclusively related to gold but other things like no snow and some things else !
In the end I am quite positive as I “expect” a more fair and reasonable world.
I also read that that Russia has suspended marked to market rules for their banks, I hope that they will come back to in 2015 and not follow the path of the USA as you mention it in this missive.
I believe it will be short term until they can stabilize the ruble and their banks.
Another absolutely out of this galaxy Q3 US GDP !
How big the us consumption/ weapons and ammos manufacturing, debt creation can grow ???
USSA is the new 2000’s China !
maybe not, do you believe the numbers?
Looks like the 5% GDP boost number included Q1 Obamacare numbers(ZH), so it’s another manipulated number.
almost entirely! Imagine, they are now counting a “tax” as growth, how dumb can people be?
Personally I hope his dribble continues creating great buying opportunities; however nationally I don’t wish to be the last man standing.
I am continually amazed how my business readings and devotional readings are aligning, rumors of this…..rumors of that…..
I yearn for the time when an omnipotent knowledge base is calling the shots.
a spiritual world not resembling the current.
The way I interpret things, I see an omnipotent entity physically ruling and reigning over this world for a while; but no matter, I do believe it will finally be a time of peace on earth and good will towards men.
as the Bible says, Einstein said he didn’t know how WW III will be fought but WW IV will be fought with sticks and stones.
As the bible also says in Revelation, it’s NOT going to peace on earth and good will to all men. Think about the claim Revelation makes, that ALL men, great and small will be under the same system. When this was written and even til the last few decades, this was something that wasn’t even conceivable, yet here we are. So for those who think they will fight the NWO or bet it won’t take place, IMO it’s bibically baked in the cake.
…but after Revelation, 1,000 years of peace.
Bill I think Harry also forgot that Alan the scam Greenspan said the central banks was ready to sell gold should gold pose a threat in rising too fast exposing the paper PONZI? He may be correct in paper price going down, but will there be any gold to be found is the other thing. People who have plenty money involved in the system will always speak to keep it from falling out of their own fears of losses.
yes Marco, two different prices, one for paper and one for physical.
Hey Bill, Marco made me think of this when he mentioned CBs selling gold. To manipulate prices, is it possible CBs, working in unison, put gold out there for sale and never have it available to be bought except by another CB. And simply run this merry-go-round over and over again with each other.
I am sure this is a common COMEX and LBMA trick, the problem in the physical market is real physical demand. Central bank gold has been used to satisfy real demand.
Dent sparred with Rickards and said the people won’t allow QE3. He doesn’t understand that inflation of the money supply is the path of least resistance and will be demanded by the people in response to a deflationary collapse. Don’t we have now at least one Obama advisor arguing for the proverbial helicopter drop already?
among other things, he doesn’t realize that dollars today are no longer your “grandfather’s dollar”.
Thank you for all your work. You have a great way of keeping things simple and honest.
I know 2015 is going to be exciting. I hope we all will be prepared. -cheers.
Many thanks Bill, I appreciate your thoughts very much. Nevertheless I disagree about your statement that “dollars will disappear through defaults and bankruptcies”:
If the Dutch government supplies Greece with €1.000.000 and Greece makes the promise to pay it back in one year, but they don’t pay it back because they bought Dutch tulips for €1.000.000, what happened? The Dutch have their money back but the Dutch government is still missing €1.000.000. Probably the Dutch sellers of the tulips will pay about €100.000 tax, so in fact the Dutch government is only missing €900.000 and the Dutch tulip sellers are €900.000 richer.
Next the Dutch government has to ask the ECB to print €900.000 otherwise the Dutch have to default too. At the end of the day no euro has disappeared yet €900.000 have been created.
In Greece however factories are closed because of the default: capital has been destroyed. And so the ability to produce products. Another condition for inflation!
“dollars will disappear through defaults and bankruptcies”: …this was Harry Dent’s phrase. He is correct in that bankruptcies do male dollars go awy, they may have already been “used” to purchase something but they will not be paid back.
Harry Dent is correct if he means that the dollars are “used”, but they have definitely not disappeared. The total number of dollars stays the same so his statement is totally irrelevant for deflation.
it’s much more complicated than this Hans. He is saying that defaults will decrease their supply which on the face is correct. However, the Fed will QE QE QE to bring more into existence to prevent collapse. A fault in his logic is that if we do get deflation, the U.S. Treasury will default which means dollars also default because dollars are “credit” by definition.
Thanks that you take your time for this discussion. And I agree with you of course that the consequences of a default can be very complicated. But I am still convinced that a default doesn’t result in a decrease of the supply of dollars. Only the ownership of those dollars involved changes in my opinion ( I am not an expert, I have to commit).
Hans, if you borrow money to buy a house, that money is created by a bank to lend to you. When you default, the bank does not get paid back until someone else buys it in foreclosure with new/different dollars. The dollars in the original loan are written off as a loss …those dollars disappeared.
Hans, You need to understand fractional reserve banking.
Taking your example of $1,000,000. The central bank prints $1,000,000. This million is deposited into a bank A. Bank A can lend 90% of that or 900,000.
The tulips cost 900,000, the sellers deposit that money into the Dutch bank B. The dutch bank B lends $810,000 to me, I stuff that money under my mattress.
The tulip buyer defaluts due to lack of money, which causes Bank A to default. The tulip buyer is forced to sell his tulips at a loss, as there isn’t enough money floating around cause it’s all under my matteress.
Being the savy businessman that I am, I see a good opportunity to buy tulips on the cheap, pennies on the dollar, so I spend 400,000 for tulips. My mattress is a little softer, I have alot of tulips, BankA was paid 40¢ on the dollar for the loan. 600,000 evaporated.
I still owe Bank B 810,000. I have 400,000 worth of tulips and 410,000 cash.
The tulip futures market crashes, no one wants to buy tulips, I off load them for $100,000. I now have $510,000 cash. I repay my $810,000 loan with $510,000
BankB just suffered a $300,000 loss.
…and there you have it.
Thank you both for our comments! But being a stubborn man (I apologize for that), I am still not convinced.
Marty, at the end bank A has $500,000 ($100,000 plus $400,000) and bank B $600,000 ($90,000+$510,000). Together $1,100,000. (The extra $100,000 came from the last buyer). No money disappeared or was destroyed so the direct effect is not deflationary. Dollars can only be destroyed by burning them or if Yellen is pushing by mistake the Del button instead of the P button.
However I agree that because of the losses the banks are less able to lend out money. That could be a problem in the future if the banks have not enough money, if there are enough people wanting to borrow money from the banks and if the FED doesn’t help. These are the indirect consequences of a default and they can be deflationary. But a default can have much more consequences, e.g. loss of trust in the dollar. This can of course be very inflationary (I certainly agree with Bill).
In general (in my opinion): If money supplied by a bank is considered as money created by the bank, this creation must be interpreted as an inflationary act. If the money returns to the bank (repaid), it is the opposite: it is a deflationary act. So defaults are not deflationary, but inflationary (or neutral).
Bill, regarding your example:
1. The bank supplied A with money in order to buy a house. A gives the money to B, the builder of the house. After default of A, the money originally supplied by the bank didn’t disappear: B still has the money.
2. A was working for company C. But A got fired, so he is not able to pay the money back to the bank. The money supposed to be used to repay the bank also didn’t disappear: C still has that money
Just curious to what your thoughts are regarding what Martin Armstrong says about PM’s not being a hedge against inflation but a protection against lost faith in goverment(s). He doesn’t disclaim that people should own gold, but he states that inflation has nothing to do with it. He also states that 3Q of 2015 is when things will really start to come apart.
he was wildly bullish gold until he was released from jail…quid pro quo?
It is the same man who says gold/silver = fiat because kings and governments always debase metal coins !
When consumer prices are rising gold is not the best hedge, that’s sure, there can be soft commodities and rarer things like art or even rhodium.
It is also a hedge against real deflation as Bill wrote above.
However that does not make armstrong will be wrong regarding its price, especially with its paper prices…
“However that does not make armstrong will be wrong regarding its price, especially with its paper prices…” Real gold is not paper, it is conceivable to see crashing COMEX prices and soaring physical prices at the exact same time.
Martin proves that world view can change on a dime when it’s necessary for one’s desired outcome. Beware of the messenger and his motive – we are surrounded by thieves trying to keep their heads above water!
and many jumping ship.
Firstly, Merry Christmas to you and yours.
I’m in total agreement with this latest post. I listened to the Dent interview (never hearing him before) and thought this guy is absolutely bonkers. But Greg being the fair and unbiased reporter that he is, needed to show both sides of the camp.
At any rate, Do you think the Rubles recent fall is an attempt at mitigating the dollar’s fall? In fact do you think maybe the dollar index is going up to cushion the fall?
Do you think it’s wise to save coins? If the dollar is devalued, is the govt going to recoin all coinage, OR let the penny stay a penny to the new dollar. If the latter, who deals with coins? The rich? no. The poor guy. So when the dollar devaluation occurs, the poor guy is going to say, hey, I had $9 in change, now I got $900 worth of “new” money. cool.
The poor guy still has EBT, Section8 housing, medicaid, etc. The poor guy has little to no savings in the bank, so he won’t be affected to the degree that yuppies will.
yes Marty, they want to show “ruble bad…dollar good. As for coinage, I don’t think this is going to work because the coins are “dated”, meaning “pre reset” so their value will be known as “old money”. The best coin is a real coin…made of gold or silver!
I understand that coins are dated, but say the dollar is devalued by 100, it would then take 100 old pennies to equal one new penny. Old pennies may become numismatic, but the question I’m trying to figure out, is will the gov’t mint new coins to replace the old ones? Since the numbert of coins (relative to the number of dollars in circulation) is a couple hundreds of orders of magnitude less, why bother minting new coins? Plus coins are backed by the US treasury, not some private federal reserve bank.
So I guess, if the Federal reserve fails, the only “real” currency would be coinage,,,
First off love your articles. Their seem to be a lot of people like Dent out there. Not the same advice but just blatantly defying logic. Krugman and even our president comes to mind. I always come to two conclusions. Either they are really dumb or they are telling us one thing while doing another. I have read and listened to Dent on multiple occasions and he seems to just disregard large swaths of important data when he comes to his conclusions.
Hope you have a wonderful holiday and I look forward to your next article.
thanks Chris, you too! These people are dangerous to YOUR well being and yes, some of it seems to be on purpose.
Harry Dent is scary with his deflationary advice. What are your views on Jim Willie, whom I have followed for some time. His December newsletter was eye opening with regard to aliens.
I have not seen Willie’s latest, I do know that logically we humans can not be the only intelligent life in the universe. …And I am being generous by assuming “intelligence” amongst humans!
Merry Christmas to all…..
Christmas, a time when we celebrate the birth of the only personage in history who can and will bring peace on earth and good will towards men.
Merry Christmas to you gig.
Good morning Bill,
I have somewhat of a personal request and will understand if you chose to ignore it.
My granddaughter just out of college and taking her first job has moved to the Dallas area.
She cannot invest much, but does wish to purchase a small amount of PM from each pay check.
I have certainly incouraged her to follow this practice, but I have no idea where she could go in Dallas to reliability purchase small amounts of silver.
I do live in TX, but several hrs from Dallas and not real familiar with the area.
Any info in this regard would be appreciated, and if you wish to keep this off the blog it would be fine to private email me or if you wish to totally ignore my request I would be fine with that as well.
I don’t have any idea where she can go in Dallas on a cash and carry basis as I am 250 miles away. She can call one of our brokers as Miles Franklin does have monthly accumulation plan, I do not know the particulars but one the brokers can her. Sorry couldn’t be of more help.
He’s right for the wrong reason.
His confirmation bias of obstinately ignoring the fact that the dollar changed from being money to a currency back in ’33 manifests a certain cognitive dissonance whereby he views the modern fiat world through the lens of a bygone era that no longer exists in reality.
If the dollar were still as good as gold like before, he’d be quite correct about deflation. If you price assets in gold or silver over the past 15 years, you will notice an increase in the metals purchasing power relative to goods and services. To you, prices are going down and not up – deflation. If you are however on a currency standard, prices have been going up – inflation.
Honest people place themselves within honest money and view the world in a different manner than those who chase colored paper and ethereal digits. Unfortunately most are too stupefied to know the difference, and Harry’s twisted world view isn’t helping matters much.
Bill, thank you. I think it’s important that you mention “dangerous”. Because it is. These are crazy times. I don’t want to waste my words on Dent, I have better sources. You’re one of them. Just how bad can things get. That’s what I’m wondering. When there’s no solution, then what? This is a sincere question. There is no solution, right? Who messed things up?
correct, there is no solution other than a re set and restructuring. This will be very painful even for those prepared and expecting it…disastrous for those who are not expecting it.
Sure there is and it’s called the SDR. Out of the fiat frying pan and into a more stable centralized global fire. National balance sheets will be balanced and the people leveled as their respective currencies take a 50 to 80% haircut against the new global one at Re-set. The people will more than likely beg for it as the pain, chaos and confusion get ratcheted up.
The plunging oil price is part of this as it puts oil producing countries’ debt under pressure to pay off dollar obligations. Third/developing world debt tied to the petrol dollar are and will be part of this pain. Derivatives liberating pensions and bail-ins too. Inflation for the necessities of life as well. Eventually countries and their people will cry uncle and be herded into the new system quite happily. Problem, reaction, solution.
It’s the solution of choosing which end of a dropped deux that is the cleanest to pick up from. Then there’s always other gauche solutions no one talks about in polite company.
Were the IMF to supplant the dollar with “gold backed” SDR’s, the price would need to be marked well into the 6 figure category.
How safe are Credit Unions compared to banks?
it’s hard to say but you are still saving in dollars.
Mr. Holter, I have followed you on USA Watchdog with Greg Hunter, I appreciate your no nonsense commentaries, like you, initially I held that Mr. Dent was making sense, however when he went into his gold deflationary mode I lost it there, some years ago I read one of his books wherein he dwelt on deflation throughout. I couldn’t see deflation becoming the predominant effect then, but only a brief interlude before inflation took hold. I am certainly no economist however so much that is being bantered about today appears to be mere chatter. Again I thank you for your honest evaluation delivered in a clear fashion that the majority can grasp.
very welcome Andrew.
Mr. Holter, I very much enjoy your articles and perspective. In your latest interview, you indicated you would have expected a credit contraction or event before now. Why do you think the inevitable has been delayed? How do the PTB benefit from a delay in crashing the current system and moving on to the next, which they will control as well?
time to prepare AND have something to blame it on.
Bill, top article. Thoroughly enjoyed it.
Thank you for spreading your wisdom and knowledge and experience, esp. over at USAwatchdog.
I’m sorry to be asking this question about an article that is “old” however I just now became aware of this article. I agree with everything you are saying which is why I think I’m prepared for whats coming. One point in particular peaked my interest. That one being about owning stock in Scottrade. All of my speculative postions in MINING STOCKS are owned in my Scottrade account. Is it possible to lose value in this account if the mining stocks go up. I’m confused, I’m not financially saavy and rely on what I read on sites like this. I am “all in” and do own only precious metals investments in 1 form or another so I don’t want to lose everything I have in Scottrade.
Thank you for your response
Glenn Partin OD
GOTS …get out of the system.
I agree with Dent, that there will be deflation, but that will be price falls in those things that hardly matter. The things that REALLY matter – Food, Potable Water, Oxygen (if we are to believe Brazil’s Finance Minister?) and the other essentials of life, will soar.
Any one who looks at how we are now adding a billion people to the planet every ten years or less, cannot fail to see, that essentials will soar, unless supply soars too. And unfortunately those listed items, and REAL money (not currency) will soar too.
So. with the things that matter …Harry Dent is wrong?