I detect a different “tone” to Larry Edelson’s most recent article. He’s not shouting that gold is headed down toward $1,450. Instead, he says gold is “not quite ready” for the next stage up in the on-going bull market. I have always maintained that Larry will never see gold in the $1,400s and most likely not even in the $1,500s. I bet he’s beginning to feel the same way.
Using “technical analysis” to predict the trends is risky business, in a market (gold and silver, in this case) that is rife with manipulation.
David Banister lays out an Elliot Wave analysis that suggests we are at the very end of the downturn. The next weave will be a biggie and it will be an UP WAVE. Banister’s charts predict a high for gold, in the A Wave Up of $2,280 to $2,400 by this June. Not quite up to Chris Laird’s prediction of $2,500, $3,500 then $4,500 but I’ll take it. Then again, he doesn’t put a time-line on his price predictions and Banister is looking six-months out.
I like the most recent article by Przemyslaw Radomski. He takes a close look at gold priced in several currencies and concluded that it is mis-leading to judge gold’s price strictly on the dollar chart. It looks much more bullish in other currencies, especially the Japanese yen.
Adam Hamilton has been wrong as the Mayans with his love for mining shares, though that will eventually change, but I love his colorful charts and graphs. They are the best in the business. He is very bullish now on bullion coins, in particular the US Gold Eagles. He concludes:
And as the recent surge in gold Eagle demand indicates, the political environment can be a big driver of investment demand. We are now stuck with four more years of out-of-control federal spending and the resulting ruinous deficits. The Fed is aggressively monetizing this new debt, which is highly inflationary. As gold and silver start powering higher again, investment demand is only going to continue growing.
-from US Mint Bullion-Coin Sales 3, January 4, 2013
Check out the latest confiscation article by Julian Phillips. It’s an interesting article, but I disagree with its basic premise, that gold will be confiscated. Jim Sinclair makes the point that there is no way the US would confiscate gold while China is encouraging their citizens to own gold and even Russia is not a threat to confiscate. If the government tried to confiscate, we would be exposed for the paper tigers we are. If we really do have the 8000+ tonnes of gold we claim to have, there is no need to confiscate. It would be a major embarrassment to admit we lied about it all these years.
Now they could nationalize the gold mining industry. Personally, I think storage outside the banking industry in Canada is good enough protection and as I have mentioned before, Andy Schectman, Andy Hoffman and I all have our gold there – but if you believe that Switzerland is the only safe place to store gold, we can refer you to a program there for Swiss storage also.
I deal with the “threat” of confiscation by diversifying my metals portfolio. I have an equal dollar amount in silver and a fair amount of Platinum, just in case…. If push came to shove and I had to repatriate my gold and turn it in (not counting on that happening), I would get a lot of dollars that I would immediately put into other tangibles like high quality real estate or buy more silver and platinum, regardless of the high prices at the time. My net worth would be bolstered by the silver and platinum, which would go ballistic if gold were taken.
Be sensible. Diversify. Store offshore and you can even diversify there too by using Canada (Miles Franklin International Storage with Brinks) and Switzerland. We are specialists in this area and you can call us at 800-822-8080 if you need information.