“Gold and silver have turned!” I bet you have heard that one before. In fact, I said this almost 12 months ago at the end of last June. Back then we had another 2 day waterfall event which became common events throughout 2013. As it turns out, that event was the (a) “retest” of $1,180 in gold and $18 in silver. I believe that last June really was the bottom in price. We have chopped since then and had a good little rally to start this year off only to be pressured down again…but I believe that things have now changed.
So why did the metals soar on Thursday? Was it because Janet Yellen and the Fed were “dovish” as is commonly thought? Maybe, but haven’t they been dovish since 2008? Didn’t we have QE’s 1, 2 twist and then QE3? Hasn’t the Fed, the BOE, BOJ and ECB all flooded the markets with cheap and nearly free currency? Yes they have, but all we have for their efforts is more debt, inflated markets and stagnant economies where it costs the average person more each day to live and survive. Six years after the fact they are still using the word “recovery” when during a normal business cycle we would have had another recession, a second recovery and already be in a 2nd growth phase.
The list of “potential” reasons for gold to have exploded out of its “2%” lasso is many. As mentioned above, a dovish Fed is one theory. Zero Hedge speculates that the financial games played to depress gold in the face of record physical demand are reversing because missing collateral has become evident. Andrew Maguire believes that the market got very short recently and the move is the beginning of a massive short squeeze. Fundamentalists believe that this is the result of gold and silver trading at or below the costs of production. Others are talking about the drawdowns in the COMEX, LBMA, and GLD inventories as scraping the bottom of the barrel and supply is just drying up.
I believe “all of the above” but most of all I believe that what has just started is only the very beginning of a wide and long planned out “trap” if you will. I believe that long ago, foreigners figured out what GATA has been trying to inform the public about for what seems like forever. First off, if GATA figured out that gold and silver prices have been manipulated and suppressed, so have others. Not only can “others” figure it out on their own. GATA has made all of their information 100% public and available. They have sent evidence everywhere imaginable. They have tirelessly sent evidence to the press, the newspapers and TV stations both here in the U.S. and abroad. They have sent evidence to the CFTC, the SEC, regulators of foreign nations, senators, congressmen and women, you name it, and GATA has sent it.
My point is this, the information is out there for anyone with half a brain and their “door” slightly cracked open for the information to get through. The fact that gold’s price has been suppressed has got to be known as a fact in my opinion by nearly all foreign governments. The Germans and Austrians now know. The Saudis know the Swiss can see it first hand. The Chinese and Russians know, literally everyone knows but until now it was like the crazy uncle in the basement that everyone knew about but wouldn’t talk about.
It is my opinion that up until now, no one was willing to go out on a limb like Charles DeGaulle did in the late 1960’s. No one “overtly” called on gold but through backchannels have been placing their bets and taking delivery. This would explain the physical demand that we’ve seen. I use the word “overtly” because until now I don’t think anyone wanted to feel the wrath of the U.S. so they went about their business behind the scenes and done so quietly. I also believe that if there were say 3,000-5,000 tons left to accumulate a year ago, then why would you pull the plug until the last ounces were vacuumed up? So they have waited… until the time was right.
So here we are today, one year after the bottom and what has happened? Well, the “buyers” bought and have been taking delivery of huge weights of gold while…the U.S. has gone another $1 trillion++ in debt, the Fed added another $1 trillion to their balance sheet, corporate and individual America has gone further into debt, more manufacturing has left our shores and apparently so has some gold whether it’s been ours or someone else’s. I think that we have arrived at the point where foreigners feel “strong” enough and see us as weak enough to all stand up in unison and say “enough.” The amount of deals done in the last 2-3 months alone that exclude the use of dollars is staggering. Just this past week, Britain inked a deal with China on “direct” trade between the two in sterling and Yuan. A deal like this could never have been even contemplated just a few short years ago. Remember, this was Great Britain who did this, supposedly our number one ally and friend with what has been described as a very “special relationship.” For Britain to do this it tells me that it’s not just smoke in the back rooms where the deals are being done, no, it’s a raging fire.
I think that as of now, most all of the pieces are in place for the world to collectively stand up to and financially knock the U.S. off of our pedestal. This past Thursday may have been a “test shot” to see what we have left. It may have been “jockeying for position” or positioning before the announcement. Like I wrote above, if I know this, if GATA knows this, then they also know. If it were me leading the troops into this battle, I would set off a string of announcements. Each and every one of them aimed at the dollar, our financial system and our economy. The Russians would do the heavy lifting militarily. The Chinese might announce their intent to “reallocate” (sell) some of their U.S. Treasury hoard. They might also announce something like an 8,000 ton current holding of gold as a kicker. The Saudis would announce that they will accept Yuan, rubles and euros but no longer dollars for their oil. Trade and financial arrangements might be altered by the Europeans as their arms are twisted with withheld natural gas supplies. This list is by no means complete but quite easily coordinated.
Before finishing I’d like to mention one other thing that is happening. The open interest in silver has grown and grown and grown over the last several months and rests very close to the all-time highs of 3 years ago when it was priced at almost $50. The open interest is now roughly 165,000 contracts. The July month alone has almost 60,000 contracts open with just 8 trading days before 1st notice day. This represents about 300 million ounces. The dealer inventory only totals 57 million ounces and when customer held inventory is added, the total is 174 million ounces. Clearly, if these July contracts stood for delivery then the COMEX would be cleaned out entirely. It has been my theory that the Chinese have been accumulating silver contracts through various proxies for months on end. I originally believed this a year ago until the open interest then diminished but here we are again.
If I am correct about my “giant trap” theory, you can bet your bottom dollar that the paper silver market is also a part of it. The July contracts open currently amount to a whopping (sarcasm) $6 billion worth of silver and the amount available for delivery is less than $1.2 billion. COMEX inventory in total is only $3.5 billion worth of silver. Why would the Chinese not turn over $6 billion worth of Treasury bonds to bust the COMEX wide open? If they did not ultimately do this, I would be shocked. Actually if you think about it, the Chinese could do this all on their own and for “free” (only $6 billion) destroy the Western financial system by exposing the amount of metal available for delivery to be insufficient. Why would they not just do this all on their own? Easy, have you ever studied a pack of dogs or wolves? While one dog may be scared away easily, when there is a pack involved there is no scaring them away. Unfortunately, the U.S. has angered so many nations that several packs are now easily formed. All you need to do is use a little bit of common sense to connect the announcement “dots,” new alliances and partnerships to see that the world is collectively turning into a “pack.” Maybe I am seeing things but it looks to me like what is about to happen has and was pre planned for many years and by many parties.
Dear Mr. Holter,
THANK YOU SO MUCH for your “spot on” comments!! Easily read and quite digestible, your comments are clear, concise and, very accurate for anyone who desires to see what is TRULY going on in the precious metals world. I would hope such comments, at some point in the near future, hit the mainstream media for all to see–especially in America–BEFORE it is too late to take any meaningful action to protect oneself. The American public DESERVES that!!
Bob Peiser, Jr.
Lakewood Ranch, FL
ur welcome Bob.
The only thing the American public deservers is what they voted for! Are you for real???
Last time I checked, yes, I am for real. Not “all of us voted for it”.
I think you are correct!
GOLD is the money of the KINGS.
SILVER is the money of the GENTLEMEN.
BARTER is the money of the PEASANTS.
But DEBT is the money of the SLAVES.
Bill: We have both opined that the Chinese warehouse hypothecation scandal could be the proverbial canary of the GREAT UNWIND. If you are just partially correct, and there is some sort of PM default which cannot be spun away, what do you think the totalitarian psychos in power will do? An overnight 50% USD devaluation and/or bank holidays? Martial law, preceded or not by another false flag attack to control the rabble?
Most definitely, “something wicked this way comes”.
all of the above?
There is no doubt that the ruling families have an exit plan. Whether it is the plan they really wanted or not, time will tell. Their solution may be as simple as Nixon’s speech spinning the death of the gold standard as patriotic act “defending the US Dollar” and it’s people “against” the evil and despicable “speculators”. Every simpleton can understand a narrative such as this, especially given the MSM has been vilifying certain countries for some time now.
“the evil speculators”!
Hey Bill, I know you are spot on with this again. Did you ever heard about SIRI from the iphone saying on juluy 27th 2014, “opening the gates of hades?”. Well I think that since they call silver the devils metal, this changing of the fix will be the beginning of this and economic hell. Also, we had warning in the news a few months with Donals STERLING and Mr. SILVER from the NBA. This is not coincidence that we have a man called SILVER prosecuting another man called STERLING. Remember this was also when one of the main banks of the silver fix decided to stop being a part of it.
This is a 5trillion dollar market when the total market for silver at today’s prices is apx 20billion. I would say we have a major problem. The silver market is apx 1/3 of the US debt which is 17trillion. As you stated, it is a trap, for those who are uninformed will be the ones left in the box not having anything to save them financially. Also, silver has now pushed through the 3yr down trend line and is just clear space above there once 26.00 and ounce is breached. Don’t take a break this summer for it will be a fall in July. 2010 July silver started off and by December had a moon shoot when the FED announced QE. If the FED ever announces another QE, 49.00 silver will be history and support.
I assure you that the “silver market” is not even close to 1/3rd of U.S. debt.
Lol Bill that is how it is trading according to the 5Trillion dollars they are saying it trades at. The paper market is 1/3 but the physical is not. I guess that should clarify things.
Today I listed 10 things I think MiLords will do (are doing) to protect their position as the dollar collapses. They might not like what’s happening, but that doesn’t mean they will stand by and watch. It is time to stand up and expose them. You are trying your best to do that I know. I find it amazing that more people are not seeing it.
A lot of theory here. In a nutshell there will be a time when the shorts turn long. But I believe that this may not be the time yet
…you willing to gamble on this?
Yes it could be a trap alright for sure.
You all should go and read Weiner’s post yesterday…”the most likely outcome is that silver speculators will drown in a deluge of metal coming to the market,”
Either way its an interesting POV from Holter.
The facts on the recent price rise don’t back up his position though.
where exactly will all this silver come from?
Obviously the silver would come from the abundant supplies.
Data is not showing scarcity (currently).
…and where exactly are these “abundant supplies”?
Respectfully Bill, you would know that silver has been mined for probably 5000 years and that it is a monetary metal and also has many varied industrial applications.
Industrially some would be used up ,some would likely be too expensive to recycle but the great majority is just sitting around in safes, hanging on peoples necks and limbs in asia, africa, and everywhere, getting polished up in cupboards etc etc.. in other words there is no exact location, it will simply come to the market should hoarders aka owners decide to sell.
There is no shortage of silver. Most of it is still in existence.
yes it has been mined for 5,000 years, no to almost all of the rest. It is not plentiful and we will soon find out how scarce it really is.
It’s only surprising a pack of nations haven’t sprung such a trap already. The world has waited and waited and waited for the USA to get its act together. The world can see how ineffectual and chaotic the Obama regime is, and waited to see the US political process invoke what should have been the inevitable impeachment process after so many corrupt abrogations of the limits of Presidential power. But the USA has shown it’s not serious about reigning in the illegality of the current Administration. It’s like all the world has waited — like Canada’s waited for 60+ months for Keystone approval — for the US to restore sanity to its affairs. But Americans and the US Congress don’t seem to care. It’s just party time all the time in the USA. So it’s high time the world moved on and withdrew its support from the US. I realize Obama is just getting what he wants in this, it’s what he hoped and planned for. Well, in any civilized country he’d have been voted out of office on a non-confidence vote, or in a republic on the cumbersome & primitive impeachment vote, but nothing is happening. Nothing is changing. The southern border is wide open and the anarchist Democrats can do whatever they want with impunity, just as the President apparently can. So the world should just do it.
well said. I think the pack of nations have “waited” for us to weaken or even implode rather than get our act together as it is obvious that we cannot.
While I definitely understand and agree with all that you have said. I do not understand why the pack would unleash the trap when they hold so many if our dollars that would be pulverized by the unleashing?
you have watched them move now for several years in preparation. They know that it is ultimately inevitable and spring the trap when they either feel ready enough or us weak enough. And yes, it will torpedo the global system but it will get up again and rebuild.
That a fiat currency collapse is coming is assured. John at Rev 18: 10, 17-19 has prophesied it three times to occur in an hour. How do we know it is a currency collapse? John has the merchants lamenting that there is no one to buy their goods. When the currency collapse occurs the world will “turn on its hinges” as Jerusalem did in 589 BC and in 70 AD.
Many trust in money reserves. The “gold bugs” place security in metals. In the troubling times on the near horizon, security and life will require a year’s food storage. The Mathew 25 parable of the ten virgins is about what happens to “really righteous” people (virgins) who do not have oil. What percent of the population is not “really righteous?” The Wise Virgins make it to meet the Bridegroom, Jesus Christ, while the Foolish Virgins do not as they likely do not remain alive. When the currency and economic collapse occurs, how is anything to be purchased? Who will sell food for metal? The oil is a metaphor for something that is purchased, is stored and is consumed. The metaphor by literary standards of the prophets has to be true to the thing represented. Spiritual preparedness cannot be purchased or eaten, although spirituality is required to have the faith to store food as urged by prophets.
The Woe 2 wars of Rev 9:12-21 will follow the collapse of the fiat currencies and the civil turmoil of hungry populations. By D&C 77:13 such will occur prior to the Glorious Second Coming of Jesus Christ.
Coercion is firmly rooted in the domain of the weak–true power is irreconcilably at its variance. The peasant who abides by this understanding is counted greater than the king that undermines it.
The US Constitution is for the people. However, the lesser know US Constitution Corporation is for the Federal Reserve Bank profit organization and dominates all. As the US Gov gave set the risk limits for the Banks which are the professionals setup up the loans to the people who should of not been given loans in the first place, created the mortgage bubble, so they screwed me as I owe 80k on my house worth 50k market wise.
So as the continuous trend of greed continues and inflates the money bubbles and debt bubbles, I buy as much as I can bare gold and silver and wait for the hooie to hit the fan as the market drops, gold and silver rises and my wealth does so too.
Just wondering when you think that scarcity in silver is actually going to show up in the actual price. No real action this past week and no backwardation in sight.
you will wake up one morning and the shortage will be like a light switch was flipped.
Well Bill you may be right correct about the price of silver relative to the ever decreasing value of the USD but it will have nothing to do with with a “shortage” or “scarcity” of silver, because there is no such thing. There is thousands of tonnes of silver for sale at the right price. It may be sold simply to get desperately needed dollars.
That said I realise your in the business of selling PMs but unfortunately for some buyers in at plus $45/oz for silver it wasn’t such a good deal. Maybe they bought more from your firm as you advised them how scarce it was and “you should average in” before the price skyrockets.
Ps I am short silver with a stop at 21.25. I also hold some metal.
I have two things to say. 1. I write only what I honestly believe and was writing long before Miles Franklin came across my stuff so no “I am not in the business of selling precious metals”. Being paid by Miles Franklin has not changed what I write at all, I say and write what I think. You can debate whether I am right or wrong but not my integrity 2. If you are actually “short” silver at these prices as opposed to having a short hedge for some reason then I laugh at you for being short below the cost of production. Very dumb in my personal opinion, but like they say, “whatever blows your skirt up”?
Well I will finish off this little conversation with a little apology to you because “i thought you were in the business of selling PM’s” .
Technically the silver chart looks like I may get stopped out but I can’t tell the future, I take trades as I see fit and have done quite well shorting Ag from $49 down going against the so called expert opinions of people like the bods on KWN and the ranting guy Andy ( who’s articles I don’t mind actually ).
As for Dumb, well from your writings here I would have to say that you have little to no idea about the true nature of silver ,its supply and demand characteristics or even dare I say shorting. Must be a lot of “dumb ??” people out there who have taken the opposite side of those smart ?? longs who have been losing money for a few years!!
“Whatever blows your trading account up” I’d say.
charts are painted by manipulation so trying to read them short term is an adventure in luck. Supply has not met demand in silver for at least 20 years, same thing in gold. As for “smart and dumb people” I would like to point out that your argument about calling the exact top tick at $49 is the equivalent of the CNBC talking heads saying that “the stock market is up because the economy is growing and we have a bright future”. The economy at best has been treading water, the future is scary as hell and physical demand for silver exceeds supply, what is done with derivatives to paint the picture to fool those who can’t see behind the curtain is not something that logic can predict nor is it something that can last forever. Good luck to you as I will not argue with you about whether the markets are grossly manipulated or not, if you don’t see it you don’t see it.
Bill…if you are an EOD trader or even longer view trader, whether the markets are manipulated or not makes no difference. All markets are manipulated in some way and always have been I would suggest.
Have you ever thought that Silver was manipulated up to $49 ? Anything is possible. I tend to think that there was a shortage metal sellers during that period and some backwardation did occur. But that is not the case today
I repeat there is no shortage of silver and the data currently showing in the market is evidence of that.
Further, I do agree that the future is looking bleak and especially for those who are not prepared by holding PM’s. My advice to people is to buy as much as you are comfortable with. SS
PS I think the price will will go lower from here Mon 7th July and it will not surprise me to see it get to $19 or lower.
Hey Silver Shorter! What Do U Have To Say About 19 Ponzied Fiats Silver NOW?
Well Spartacus Rex…that head shoulders in silver has broken down today and is very close 19 something ponzied fiat dollars.
There is no shortage of silver or gold