Its Thursday midday, and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhardt just said it’s been a “slow, frustrating U.S. recovery.” Worse yet, the U.S. is not yet close to an “optimal employment picture.” Boy, if that’s not a ringing endorsement for “tapering,” I don’t know what is.
Why so somber, Dennis? I mean, last week’s jobless claims were just reported as having fallen below 300,000. Oh yeah, as I described yesterday, such numbers are so “seasonally adjusted,” they have lost all relevance. Not to mention, the “labor hoarding” that has caused businesses to procure as many part-time, low paying positions as possible; and oh yeah, the BLS’ very own comment that it is “not unusual for claims to be volatile during the holidays.” Last but not least, don’t forget last month’s temporary decline in jobless claims; you know when California and Nevada stopped reporting amidst major computer upgrades. Simultaneously, it turns out, the Challenger Report stated, “Layoff announcements continue to run at 2-year highs; and thus, today’s results are not a positive indication for tomorrow’s big employment report.”
And then you have the most manipulated, useless of all economic reports; i.e., third quarter GDP, which was “upgraded” to 3.6% despite most economic indicators suggesting at best, flat output. Of course, it turns out that this number, too, is severely flawed; as nearly all the nation’s “growth” was due to inventory building, whilst consumer consumption was barely positive. In other words, the 4Q number should be dramatically lower; as “growth” – if you can call it that – was borrowed from the future. You know, like government-controlled companies like General Motors posting their second-largest ever month of “channel-stuffing.” Heck, I won’t even mention the ridiculously low “GDP deflator” utilized – relative to actual inflation; as that’s another story, for another day.
Furthermore, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the day’s other economic data; i.e., the 1.6% decline in U.S. durable goods orders. Yet again, an example of real data contradicting the “cooked” publications of the BLS, BEA, and other propaganda agencies.
Interestingly, this morning’s $0.45 silver slam was fully recouped, while gold has recovered two-thirds of its Cartel-induced losses and interest rates continue to creep higher. I look forward to the “vaunted” NFP report tomorrow with baited breath; and afterwards, Miles Franklin’s Minneapolis Holiday Party!