After some thinking over the weekend, I have come to the conclusion (belatedly, I can’t believe it took me more than 4 seconds) that The Fed committed it’s own suicide last Thursday. Yes I know, they had already done 2 QE’s, Operation Twist and blown up their balance while stuffing it with all sorts of non performing, substandard garbage assets. BUT, this episode of buying $40 billion (to start) of MBS per month is open ended.
All you need to do is go back through history to see that any “temporary” government program has always been permanent from it’s inception. Not only has it been “permanent”, nearly ALL government programs “grow” and expand, this is simply by nature what government does. This new program will (can) never ever end. The $40 billion will only be expanded at each “necessary” point in time, it will never be shrunk and surely never terminated. They must inflate, now they have in place the program that will allow them to do it.
Think about it, every single time that the system experienced “stress” in the past, what was the response by The Fed? They pumped. They pumped in 1987 during and after the crash, they pumped in 1991-92 during and after the recession, they pumped in 1998 during the Asian crisis, they pumped going into Y2K, they pumped from 2001-2005 to “recover” from the 2001-02 recession and they have pumped ever since 2007 to try to avoid outright deflation. It is what they do. It is what they were created for in the first place. We are at the end game where they must increase at an exponential pace, the amounts that they print.
I had said all along that The Fed was in a box and had NO other policy options other than to print. Last Thursday they told the world that they will inflate AND sacrifice the Dollar to try to prolong the current system and retain power. Anyone with any common sense at all can see that ALL of the past “pumps” did nothing to solve the problem and only created more inflation and of course more debt. This time around, The Fed has told us that they will “pump” FOREVER and in WHATEVER AMOUNTS necessary.
Think about it, they did this while the stock market was very close to it’s old nominal highs, what will they do to “save the day” and calm the markets when we get another flash crash or an institution gets into trouble or…when a sovereign government/central bank runs amok? “Full speed ahead, we need more power Scotty!” This is serious stuff because they have now shown their hand and the limits to their “power”. It “was” pretty obvious before Thursday’s announcement, now there is not even a question as to how it ends. They have guaranteed their own demise by guaranteeing the demise of their only product…Dollars. It’s over folks, holding Dollars or Dollar based products like bank accounts, bonds, fixed annuities etc. will all end badly and possibly devalued to absolute ZERO. Don’t believe this if you wish now, you will experience it later without doubt.
I also wanted to comment briefly on the U.S. Embassy protests, riots and killings. In the past, the death of a U.S. ambassador would not stand and response would have been immediate, with force and the message would have been sent and not mistaken. There is debate as to whether or not the “riots” were “planned”. As far as I know, no “riot” that has ever occurred “spontaneously” was ever attended with RPG’s (rocket propelled grenades). I find it highly unlikely that a “movie” or YouTube is the cause of these riots. Libya itself is saying that the attacks were planned, “officially”, we are saying that it was about a movie…you decide.
I assure you, if these Muslims were happy with U.S. policy, no movie, TV show, internet article or radio piece could have incited them to do what they did. This is about policy. This is about how we have done business with them for the last 50 or 100 years. We have taken oil and other resources and paid them with pieces of paper that “coincidentally” were shown to have no real value as of last Thursday. There are reports that the administration had some advance information of impending attacks. Whether they did or did not (I have my own opinion) does not matter. You cannot have any embassy, anywhere, with just 4 guards. You cannot have an embassy lightly staffed on the anniversary of 911 (where supposedly 21 Muslims imploded 3 steel buildings and hit the Pentagon). If we did have advance warning, those who received the information and did nothing are traitors. If we did not have any information, the decision to have any embassy so lightly staffed is idiocy to nth degree.
Unfortunately for “us” the people, this brings war to the center of the table. You must understand that war has ALWAYS been the “cure” by governments when economies were in the doldrums. War has ALWAYS been the result of “fiat” regimes because at some point the regime must resort to force to have it’s paper currency continued to be accepted. War has been the result when the “receivers” of fiat currency finally realize that they were duped. I personally do not see any possible final result other than war at this point. There are many possibilities as to “why”, it may be said that Iran had to be stopped from attaining nuclear capabilities, it may be the response to the embassy attacks, it could start between Japan and China over deep sea oil rights, it could be anything at this point. Wars start when strength is perceived as weakness, wars start when “strength” must be “displayed”, wars start when one trading partner doesn’t get paid or gets paid in counterfeit, wars start over ideology and or religion. Unfortunately, the conditions exist today in so many different areas that have sparked wars in the past. I can only hope that I am wrong!