It’s PEACE! Russia and Ukraine have reached another cease fire agreement (maybe their 5th?) which will begin Sunday. Let’s see if this one holds? Ukraine cannot continue hostilities without the U.S. supplying them. What will U.S. reaction to this agreement be? The U.S. was specifically not invited to these talks, when has that ever happened before? The big question in my mind is, do continue to arm them? And if we do, what will this look like to the rest of the world? To Europe? I view this agreement as one more well thought out move by Russia, how can they be called the “bad guy” after this deal? We will either have peace …or the U.S. will be seen in a very poor light by Europe and it may spur more rapid movement Eastward, we will see! Is this for real or merely more propaganda? My guess is yes, it is for real, whether it stays for real without U.S. meddling is another question.
“Propaganda” has been standard “financial” operating procedure for years. What I am alluding to is a major league push to downplay Greece (and of course Ukraine) and the insolvency ramifications. First thing Monday morning, while we continued to get the game of “deal or no deal”, we were also being barraged with “Greece is not such a big deal”. Greece IS a big deal and very well may be THE deal which exposes the insolvency of the entire system.
As mentioned before, Greece in total may be $3 – $5trillion total exposure, or more. This is a very large sum, just think back to 2008 where if Congress did not approve the “measly” (huge at the time!) sum of $700 billion for TARP, we were told we would be thrown into the dark ages and martial law. Already, Spanish and Italian yield spreads and CDS have begun to widen. This is front running to the contagion that will take place and spread from market to market. While Greece itself in a normal world without CDS and other levered derivatives really would not be such a big deal…it is now, because there is zero margin (pun) left for error.
When, not if Greece defaults, triggers everywhere will be pulled. Please do not tell me “but their debt can be extended 60-70 years into the future” because this in and of itself is a default. Greek bonds will need to be marked to market at only a few cents on the euro. Even assuming a markdown of “only” 50% will destroy the balance sheets of banks, central banks and the ECB itself. Losses will actually have to be “booked” and capital ratios will be destroyed. In normal times these capital shortfalls could be plugged with either debt or equity raises, these are not options now and surely won’t be in crashing and illiquid markets. To illustrate just how precarious the situation is (and not even in “crisis” yet), central banks across the globe are ALREADY monetizing more than 100% of debt issuance. Yes, this “is” currently working, has outright monetization ever worked before? And now on nearly a global scale? Monetization will work until one day it does no longer, what will markets look like then? What will have value?
We are already seeing the contagion to Spain and Italy, both in the same fiscal and monetary vice Greece is in. Unemployment, as in Greece is rampant in Spain and Italy while both have debt ratios in banana republic zones. I mention this because of the contagion factor. Once Greece either quits, declines to pay or is kicked out of the Eurozone, …or agrees to an unlikely restructuring, the euro itself will collapse (again) in purchasing power. The Swiss may have kicked off the devaluation, it very well may be the Greeks who finish it off. This very well may end in a north and south euro or with a Eurozone with several southern entities not included. A much stronger euro may be the ultimate result should excess and bankrupt baggage be shed. Please understand that the ECB itself holds Greek debt, at par, which supports the value of the euro. Isn’t this is like two drunks trying to hold each other from falling down?
Just as with the Swiss reset, trade all throughout Europe will be thrown into disarray with huge overnight losses taken and business models rendered obsolete. I believe some very big and long term business decisions will need to be undertaken. Greece, Spain and Italy, as well as the rest of Europe will need to decide “who” they will trade with going forward. This is where Russia enters the picture and why European alliances with Russia/China are so important. After a collapse of the euro and during the thought process of “where to now?”, European industrialist will have a decision to make. Do they continue to trade with the U.S., accepting dollars for trade …or do they turn their attention East and probably toward a gold ratio’d currency? In my opinion there will be a very large deciding factor. Will Europe choose to do business with a region who’s hey-day is behind them and who’s consumers are leveraged to the gills …or, will they prefer to do business with a region who’s future is bright and has well over 1 billion potential consumers who are not in debt and still saving for their first big screen TV? Do you see? Do you see how “natural” any pivot of Europe toward the Russia/China alliance is?
This thought process is of utmost importance to you as an individual because the answer to the above question(s) will affect you directly. Will the status quo hold? Will it snap? If it snaps, which way will the world “lean”? The last two+ years have been designed (choreographed) to show you the new world will lean West, toward the dollar and away from gold. It is so important at this junction to ignore the trees and see the forest for exactly what it is. We are on the cusp of a New World Order, only not the NWO the neocons had envisioned. The vast majority of the world, 135 nations or more are already preparing for a turn from the dollar’s hegemony, away from false and lopsided trade, away from ugly financial and diplomatic deals …and toward real and fair weights, measures and business dealings.
Today’s juncture of time is very close to the equivalent of 1944 where nations met in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire to decide on a new monetary, financial and trade arrangement. A new “arrangement” is undoubtedly coming. By agreement, by default (pun intended), peacefully or forcefully. Gold by default, will be a very central pillar of whatever new system arises, the rest of the world’s actions are plainly telling you this. Know this and you have already won more than half the battle! …The rest of the battle may not be quite as easy.
The ECB uses gold as it’s store of value (along with some US Treasuries). For now it hesitates to ruin the medium of exchange by printing to ease the misery. If the crisis becomes existential the ECB could ruin the entire monetary system of the world by buying enormous amounts of physical gold. This would kill the dollar and yet the rise in price that would happen to gold would hardly affect the Euro as the ECB would have the gold on it’s balance sheet.
The game is to outlast the $IMF system. If it must I suspect the ECB will bend but not enough to do serious harm to the Euro.
I agree with you, Bill. Gold will shine!
they also hold Greek bonds as a “store of value”.
And now there’s also issues with West Coast Ports being locked out.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-12/catastrophic-shutdown-americas-supply-chain-begins-stunning-photos-west-coast-port-c
distribution.
Heading for stability and prosperity – Bringing the euro area back on track
— Keynote speech given at the City of London Corporation by Jens Weidmann, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank —
http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Reden/2015/2015_02_12_weidmann.html
we’ll see…
Looks like ‘Uncle Sammy’ is going to provide Kiev with financial aid to the tune of +17 billion dollars! Putin has got to be all smiles with that news, because this means the Ukrainian gas “freeloaders” can pay their balance owing and their future gas requirement. Compliments of Mr. & Mrs. USA taxpayer. Kinda gives you a nice warm fuzzy feeling. Doesn’t it? As Putin laughs all the way to the bank!
Putin is smart.
Bill, I reread what I wrote and scanned what I thought was a healthy response to it by your readers. If I offended you I am sorry. Maybe I offended you by talking about manipulation. Yes I will agree manipulation happens, I just do not dwell on it as it occurs on the upside and downside. I am a believer and am fully insured just like you, but I like Jim Sinclair wished I had sold some and kept some money in the stock market (Jim talks little of the market, but did say get back in at the bottom and has never yet said get out). I have attended several of Jim’s question and answer sessions and he did not consider any question or comment out of order and answered politely. My comment today is only that you did slightly offend me by saying maybe my first name was Barrack?. You accused me of being spam and misquoted me.
“Jobs and our economy are improving. Corporate profits and growth are present. New technologies are making dramatic changes to our life (and profit potential).”
That was right from what I wrote, and this is from what you wrote
Armistead spam …”low unemployment and strong growth… yes, spam. By the way, how do you reconcile “Obamacare” as growth Sr. Armistead? It’s a tax and NOTHING more!
As for Armistead, maybe his first name is ?Barack” as in …Obamacare 5% growth… Who coulda’ thunk of such a remarkable growth plan on his own?
I never said employment was low (just improving even if part time jobs), I am quite aware of the total % and number of Americans with a full time job (I am one of those statistics, lost full time job at age 58). I am aware of lack of revenue growth, but due to technology there is some growth (not strong growth). I never mentioned Obamacare or all of our military spending (which also is only a tax). I was drafted something young and middle aged people today cannot fathom so I am aware of a lot. That is why I believe Ukraine “could’ come to an end, just like the Viet Nam War did in America, but maybe you and others are right, we enter in some way because we do not want it to end and to hell with the Ukrainians.
Now lets end on agreement with over the top DEBT (which is the only reason there is some type of growth). DEBT is in ” super strong growth” mode and will have tremendous impacts in the future, just like you write about all the time. That future could be this weekend or maybe several years.
I apologize if I offended you but you wrote some things that are absolutely incorrect in my opinion. As for manipulation, do you believe gold is manipulated up and the dollar/stock markets are manipulated by the PPT downward? Manipulation does not just “happen”, IT IS POLICY, it is THE ONLY policy left to keep confidence from breaking and is hand in hand with completely bogus economic numbers and reports. “jobs” as you said, I equate to employment. The true unemployment rate is over 17% as measured as they did in the 1980’s. Inflation is close to 10% if calculated like they did 30 years ago, subtract the true inflation rate from nominal growth (“bolstered” by Obamacare up to 5%), real growth is negative. Bottom line, your assumption of a growing economy is just flat wrong, see John Williams work if you would like proof. Your premises of “Jobs and our economy are improving” are completely bogus and spewed out of both sides of our fearless leader’s mouth day after day, maybe I should not have made the comparison but it was my belief that you “fell” for the 5% growth lie which has come about because of a new TAX called Obamacare. I personally believe gold and silver are far more than just “insurance” at this juncture, in fact, I believe silver to be THE cheapest and most undervalued asset on the planet. You and I see things far differently. You are entitled to your opinion as I am to mine. Most of the time when I theorize, I have facts and dots to connect to arrive at my conclusion. If you start with the assumptions of job growth and an improving economy, I believe the garbage in is what gives you the garbage out.
AMEN.
Bill, Apology accepted and I think we would actually get along just fine if we were neighbors. Yes I believe in the PPT, but even they cannot stop a tidal wave of selling. Yes I believe in currency manipulation (since gold is a currency, obviously I believe it is manipulated). As far as gold being manipulated up, yes it has happened because I heard Jim Sinclair admit he was the biggest manipulator of gold in the last bull market and he knows these people as he was one of them. Now for today, this downward manipulation in gold is happening as you say. I just do not get concerned (unless I trade it) because all manipulation comes to an end. What you have talked about is true, it could end overnight and the available supply is gone. So you are 100% right, waiting may mean missing out.
Now about employment, all you and John Williams says is true. I am a longtime Jim Sinclair CIGA and stand with him, and John Williams is always mentioned on his site. I also notice he publishes you quite a lot on his website, that means a lot right there. We are quibbling over peanuts so I will submit to you about the big picture (I never questioned the big picture. The bounce up in employment is so small that it is peanuts, but it is or was there. I noticed on JS Mineset just the other day a chart of food stamp usage, it was down for the past year and half, but again peanuts compared to the spike up and little chance of it getting much better. Same thing for total US employment, a very small uptick on the down trending chart.
Therefore my “growing economy” is not really there unless you look through a microscope, again peanuts, a very small bounce from the bottom.
So Bill, we do not see things far differently. I have always been clumsy in writing and speaking unlike you. Again I mention a Jim Sinclair saying (I’ve been on his website since 2003) an economy is either growing or falling as there is no such thing as equilibrium. That is the only difference between us. Very temporary small gains that are not changing the long term picture. I only mentioned these small gains, as Jim admitted that there was the smallest of bounces going on in his last Nov San Francisco meeting (pre collapse of oil during Thanksgiving).
I promise to keep comments shorter and just single points that are not meant to upset you. These are tough times for all of us who believe in gold, because we are being made to look long and wrong. The obvious downside I saw in gold several weeks ago, I believe has now abated. Again thank you for having this open forum and answering questions and receiving feedback.
10-4 and thank you Armistead. Jim Sinclair posting my work, for me is acceptance or “validation” that I am relevant. I cannot tell you my emotions when he posted my first piece, I was shocked and to this day it excites me when he posts anything of mine, for me it is THE highest honor because he is “Mr. Gold”. I am not some “guru” who see’s all, I am just a cowboy who loves to ride, drink a few beers and has the ability to see and call bullshit when it arises. In today’s world, nearly everything is BS, it has to be because mathematically they have put themselves in a box, it is either create more debt or die. The “die” part is now front and center. The real economy is decaying and only lying about economic numbers is is preventing the sheeple from revolting …but revolt they will when they lose everything they worked for and their children are hungry. This, will be horribly BAD! God bless you and yours Armistead Garrett!
This and all PEACE will be shattered 3 weeks from today, on March 5th. There’s no way out of this now. Everything is going to seize up in the aftermath of what is coming.
Bill, I’d encourage you to find out about “Dual Seed-line Christian Identity”. I know you’ve said you are a believer (Christian), and I don’t dispute that you do believe and conduct your life in a Christian fashion, but there is so much more to it than you realize. At least take the time to seriously look into this after what transpires on March 5th. For brevity’s sake, I’ve not shared details of my prophetic dream, but if Christ is not with me than how could I tell you an exact date?
Review the following websites or bookmark them for now.
http://christogenea.org
http://kinsmanredeemer.com
http://emahiser.christogenea.org
This reply is meant for your eyes only. I’ll continue to stay anonymous through this medium/website.
Yahweh bless you
Bill, you nailed it again today. Our only problem now is getting through the weekends without your lighthouse to calm our fears. Seven days a week? Two days is getting to be like two months used to be.
rely on yourself, your own common sense and those around you. This is the way it will be!
Hi Bill,
I always look forward to your insight. Thanks for all you do.
I am constantly puzzled by my ignorance and misunderstanding on some issues. So I would like to ask you a question.
I read similar minded folks, and today read in a post that Central Banks are buyers of gold (jsmineset, where Mr. Sinclair would not post if he was not in agreement). This includes Western Central Banks, and it is also stated the US remains the largest holder of gold at over 8000 tons(if it is really there). The US and Germany are still the largest holders of gold to reserves at 70%. In my mind this just cannot be. China is buying the yearly mining output (most agree), Russia is adding massive amounts, so how can “The Central Banks” including the “West” be adding to there holdings at this time? Can you explain all this in a post soon. I seem to be able to comprehend what you write better than others.
Thanks
correct Dave, China has a bigger stash than anyone except the population of India.
The western central banks do not give any numbers on leasing activity (see GATA).
Some eastern ones are buying officialy a bit like Kazakhstan, russia etc.
These numbers could be higher but not reported up to now especially with chinese central bank.
wow! a lucid comment?
You seem to ridicule every opinion different than yours but that’s your right to do so…
No, I do not ridicule “opinions”, I ridicule and have a hard time tolerating bad and un thought out logic. I have a hard time dealing with opinions based on faulty logic, garbage in …garbage out. By the way, you are welcome to pick apart my logic if you wish but remember, 2+2 must ALWAYS equal 4.
Hi bill,
i wonder if putins threat to release 9/11 Intel had anything to do with Germany and France Rushing over to meet Putin on the same day of the threat, he seems to have won on the cease Fire agreement. Part of me thinks Europe could care less about keeping USA secrets, just a thought. This Intel keeps popping up though, wish he just show his hand
he has his own agenda.
Bill,
It looks as if our ponzi scheme is ending. We sure pulled a good one on the rest of the world. We bought real assts (iron, copper, tin, oil, etc.) and were able to pay in worthless currency (Federal Reserve Notes that are instruments of debt, not real money). It appears the rest of the world has figured it out!
Heck, now we are going to have to suck it up bigger than 99% of the sheeple can imagine. Bananna republic might look good to what the USA will be going through!
I still laugh at the Wall Street criminals that think their criminal game can continue. It’s over plain and simple. You can not have an economy based on debt, more debt, and more debt, and no savings without a middle class.
No middle class – no ponzi scheme !!! The middle class is moving into the poor class very quickly. $50 a barrel oil will speed it up very nicely. Have you noticed the 1,000’s of layoffs in the oil patch yet? Oklahoma pawn shops are buying up the oil patch workers stuff for pennies on the dollar!
Might want to take a class on speaking Chinese or take training on how to be a Chinese house boy.
We have been screwed and tatooed by the DC and Wall Street criminals. Not only do we have to pay dearly, but also our children and great grandchildren have to pay dearly as well.
“Been sold down the river” is an understatement.
You show me a man or women that states the the USA is in a recovery and I’ll show you a damn liar !!!
yes Farrell, we are a hollowed out shell of what we once were.
Your insight is reliable- thank you. This whole scam unwinding reminds me of the last 2 minutes in an NBA game- it seems to take 30 minutes of our time- but this is NO GAME!!!
but we are the pawns.
Bill,
Don’t know if you have seen this 7 minute video put out by Mike Maloney titled; “America Is Choking: Operation Chokepoint” I posted the link for Andy also. This is a MUST VIEW for ALL who love freedom.
http://www.hiddensecretsofmoney.com/blog/america-is-choking-operation-chokepoint-mike-maloney
thanks
This is like riddin’ a green horse, you never know when he’s goin’ to blow.
All you can do is be ready.
Or for some the comparison might better be their morning commute on the freeway.
Good day Mr.Holter
So its come down to the deal which goes something like this ….Greece extorts the Troika for 300B euros To stay in euro dollar the 300 bill is soaked up buy other euro countries then they revolt Greece revolts for not leaving the European union perfect for ….divide and conquir or default then take a loan from China/Russia and become their cough cough slave (but at least they would have jobs ie gas pipeline ,farming,perhaps even a little manufacturing )gee I donno who they would choose ??
On the lighter side , I go to my local Greek bakery for bread asked the Greek owner serving me if he accepts drachmas he said yes starting March 1st
good one!
Bill
In the following 42 instances, officials in the government which carried out the attack (or seriously proposed an attack) admits to it, either orally or in writing:
Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/048628_false_flag_attacks_government_psy_ops.html#ixzz3Rm4ZDjvd
http://www.naturalnews.com/048628_false_flag_attacks_government_psy_ops.html
(NaturalNews) Governments from Around the World Admit They Do It
There are many documented false flag attacks, where a government carries out a terror attack … and then falsely blames its enemy for political purposes. (Originally published on WashingtonsBlog.com)
Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/048628_false_flag_attacks_government_psy_ops.html#ixzz3Rm4OWYuA
Zerohedge recently carried this also.
Greece won’t leave the Euro and EU because it is a historical traditional relationship. They won’t join Russia because they know first hand the history of Russia. NO European country will ever place trust in Russia because of Lenin, Stalin, Kruschev, Breznev and now Putin.
There are NO Good guys – East or West. Financially, economically, politically, culturally, socially, it is all spiraling down the toilet. A total collision course.
man cannot save himself. Only Jesus Christ can save you. This is the test that Jesus Christ is putting every person through right now.
hopefully many pass the test!
Mr. Holter,
Very fine analysis, you have crystallized various issues down the to the pivot point of true “value”. With true value as the pivot point, the lever always decidedly leans to gold and real assets. Your essay lights the path which the world will follow.
Thank you for your insights.
thank you for such kind words!