One of the Wall Street’s oldest “truisms” has been “sell in May, and go away.” Equity markets have certainly had significant summertime moves, but for the most part, tend to be quiet. A longstanding, “unwritten rule” among Wall Street’s bankers is the stress and strain of the year’s non-summer months should be channeled into lavish vacations in the Hamptons and Cape Cod, and thus volume – and subsequently, volatility – should be kept to a minimum.
In Precious Metals – however – the fact that “analysts” and “newsletter writers” publish such drivel is a testament to how weak the “good guys” have been. Our “team” has grown exponentially stronger, but we still must deal with the Larry Edelsons, Harry Dents, and Clive Maunds – whose never-ending, chart-dominated mantras are “bearish in the short-term, bullish in the long-term.” Heck, the fact that PMs have significantly volatility ever is all but PROOF they are manipulated, as NO ASSETS ON EARTH experience less change in their investment merits over time – in a month, year, or decade.
Nearly a year ago – June 27th, to be exact – I penned the below RANT, pulling no punches in its assertion…
Ranting Andy: “Summer Doldrums,” The Biggest Load of C-p Ever!
At the time, gold was sitting at roughly $1,500…
…and the Dow at 12,500, both having benefitted from the two year GLOBAL LIQUIDITY EXPLOSION following Global Meltdown I in early 2009. Despite middling economic data (at best), Washington, Wall Street, and the MSM again trumpeted a false dawn of “economic recovery” – which combined with the greatest MONEY PRINTING ORGY of all time, allowed all markets to rise steadily, with very little volatility.
When I penned that RANT, I was vilified for my view that Europe was on the cusp of calamity, with the U.S. to follow closely behind. Even many “gold good guys” – such as the aforementioned – were recommending to “sell in May and go away” – and once again, “RANTING CASSANDRA” was alone on an island of pessimism.
Lo and behold, the CRIMINAL Wall Street bankers and traders were forced from the beaches of East Hampton and Nantucket – my beloved Montauk as well – because Little ol’ “RANTING ANDY” was right again. The below chart starts at EXACTLY June 27th – the day of my RANT – depicting a 17% Dow crash to 10,400 (albeit blatantly supported by the PPT)…
…and a 28% gold surge to an ALL-TIME HIGH of $1,920/oz., stopped ONLY by to the most insidious Cartel ATTACK since the “SUNDAY NIGHT PAPER SILVER MASSACRE” – i.e., September’s “OPERATION PM ANNIHILATION,” and it’s identical twin, December’s “OPERATION PM ANNIHILATION II”…
Once again, if the “analysts” – mainstream and “alternative” – had simply done a modicum of RESEARCH, they’d see gold had risen in nine of the past eleven summers, putting yet another anti-gold MYTH to bed. Not only that, the ONLY year gold posted a significant summer decline – a measly 9% in 2006 – was after it had risen an incredible 32% in the year’s first four months!
Gold performance, May through August |
|
||
Year |
Gain/Loss |
Up |
Down |
2001 |
1% |
1 |
|
2002 |
3% |
1 |
|
2003 |
13% |
1 |
|
2004 |
4% |
1 |
|
2005 |
2% |
1 |
|
2006 |
-9% |
1 |
|
2007 |
1% |
1 |
|
2008 |
-4% |
1 |
|
2009 |
7% |
1 |
|
2010 |
6% |
1 |
|
2011 |
26% |
1 |
|
Avg. (G/L), Sum (U,D) |
5% |
9 |
2 |
Here we are in May 2012, with politicians, bankers, and citizens alike longing for the “good old days” of a year ago – let alone three months ago, when yet another heavy dose of Wall Street/Washington/MSM “economic recovery” PROPAGANDA was heaped upon us, aided by a maniacal PPT that succeeded in executing nearly identical “DEAD RINGER” or “VARIATIONS THEREOF” algorithms on an astounding 93% of ALL trading days…
DOW JONES PROPAGANDA AVERAGE – 2012 YTD | |||
DEAD RINGERS |
VARIATIONS THEREOF |
ANOMALIES |
|
February |
11 |
6 |
1 |
March |
14 |
6 |
1 |
April |
10 |
9 |
1 |
May |
5 |
1 |
2 |
Total |
40 |
22 |
5 |
% of Total |
60% |
33% |
7% |
Not only is the U.S. economy rapidly deteriorating – with just a handful of dolts stating otherwise – but the GLOBAL economy is in FREEFALL. The European continent will shortly splinter into tiny bits, like this analogous video clip from one of my favorite ever movies. The denizens of the Phantom Zone are unhappy Greek, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, Irish, and French citizens, desperate to escape the vile clutches of the suffocating Euro Currency Mechanism. Only the primeval, Earth-shattering force of TRILLIONS of unpayable debts and soaring inflation can set them free, in this case from the NUCLEAR BOMB Superman accidentally detonates in their path…
Per the Zero Hedge article below, “QE’s long shadow is getting shorter” – although at this point, it essentially has no shadow, like a ghost in the night. Remember, this Spring’s vicious Cartel attack commenced with a full-scale Wall Street/Washington/MSM “end of QE” PROPAGANDA campaign – coupled with the most maniacal Cartel naked shorting since late 2008. Thus, even the world’s most skeptical market observers will start to question WHY gold is falling now, particularly as it soared to an ALL-TIME HIGH under identical market conditions last summer.
QE’s Long Shadow Is Getting Shorter
Irrespective, I believe last year’s Global Meltdown II – and perhaps 2008’s Global Meltdown I – will pale in comparison to the “UPCOMING SUMMER OF DISCONTENT.” The “point of no return” for the ENTIRE WESTERN WORLD was passed long ago – as far back as the gold standard abandonment in 1971 – but this time around, the Central Banks themselvesare out of ammunition.
Perhaps “Global QE3” will stabilize markets for a few months, but at what cost? Central banks have already PRINTED – and WASTED – at least $20 TRILLION over the past four years, producingNOTHING for their efforts except debt, inflation, unemployment, and social unrest. This time around, Europe will collapse no matter how much money is PRINTED – as “THE PEOPLE HAVE SPOKEN” – and printing more could potentially backfire, causing the death of the dollar, as well as all the world’s dollar-anchored toilet currencies…
Furthermore, if PM prices stay at such depressed levels much longer, the ENTIRE WORLD will experience an EXPLOSIONof premiums and delivery wait times – just as we saw in Fall 2008, Spring 2011, and Fall 2011. But this time around – given the inevitable breakup of the Euro – such shortages may NEVER dissipate. Sadly, for the majority of the world’s denizens, Precious Metal prices and availability will be the least of their problems, as the ravages of surging (and god forbid hyper-) inflation will destroy countless millions of lives, yielding draconian government responses that could be the worst aspect of all.
PROTECT YOURSELF, and do it NOW!
Call Miles Franklin at 800-822-8080, and talk to one of our brokers. Through industry-leading customer service, and competitive pricing, we aim to EARN your business.
“Here we are in May 2012, with politicians, bankers, and citizens alike longing for the “good old days” of a year ago…”
I have noticed that all too many people who should know better are doing this – longing for “the good old days” and pointing to 2003-2007 as its finest example. Folks, what was going on during those years is EXACTLY what has brought us to these bad new days!
The simple fact is, and the simplest explanation is often the best and most nearly correct explanation, that the US, Europe, Japan, and any number of other places are suffering from a toxic over-dose of government. There is simply too much government in the world and in our lives. This simply has to be all the evidence required to prove that if a little of something is good, then MUCH more of it isn’t necessarily much better. In fact, it is often MUCH worse and even fatal at times.
Note that from about 1960 to about 2000, the US spent about 19% of its GDP on government. Some will argue that this is about right and that we should get back to that from the current and quite frightful 25% of GDP being
spent on government. This is an error on their parts. Spending this much on government is precisely what has brought us to our current state of a virtually comatose economy. The economy is starved and strangled by massive over regulation, taxation, and interference in every aspect of our daily lives. Additionally, government at all levels is so large these days that it is consuming the vital resources that the national economy needs in order to grow and prosper. It is literally consuming these nations!
If the economy were a hospital patient, the many politicians would be the doctors, all crowding in to see the patient and deliver their words of wisdom, while some of them are standing on the patients oxygen hose, debating amongst themselves what new treatment should be tried or what long-term beneficial program should be implemented.
The fact is, the only thing that will help that patient will be to get all but 1 of the doctors out of that room. Perhaps then, the doctor will have time to notice that the patient is not getting any air (freedom) with which to become cured!
Ed,
Right on, 100%!
I just wrote a RANT a week or two ago about this very topic – TOO MUCH GOVERNMENNT (I believe it was called “GOVERNMENT DESTROYS LIVES”).
Andy