Vladimir Putin spoke last week to Russian diplomats and in my opinion “told it like it really is” whether we like it or not. He said that “the time of U.S. domination has ended and Russia will be reintegrating the Eurasian landmass (former USSR), while promoting better relations with Europe, ‘which is our natural partner’. ” The full story can be found here.
The following is just a sample of what has happened in just the last week alone. Mr. Putin made this speech and also made the statement that the U.S. was trying to “blackmail” France into not doing business with Russia. France signed a yuan swap deal with China followed by the head of France’s central bank saying flat out that the world will be encouraged to diversify away from using the dollar. Also from France, the CEO of energy giant Total said he believes “there is no reason to pay for oil in dollars”. South Korea announced direct trade with China where no dollars will be used. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan all called troops to defend their borders with Syria and Iraq in anticipation of ISIS turning their sights towards them. The largest bank in Austria revealed that their bad loan portfolio increased by 40%. In the U.S., the big news was the creation of 288,000 “new jobs”. Unless you look under the hood you will not hear that 500,000 full time jobs were lost and 800,000 part time jobs were created. These are all big individual stories and all have something to do with a weakening dollar, a weakening United States and reasons to move away from the dollar.
Almost everything that is now happening (almost exclusively bad) revolves around the dollar. Actions by the U.S. that are now more and more obvious and desperate are designed to prolong the dollar’s life and actions by foreign nations are simply the preparations for when the day does finally arrive. “The day” of reckoning is very close at hand and is inevitable. We have lived for several decades where we “borrowed to buy” and paid with a currency that we can print freely and never really settled. We never “planned” to settle …this was the plan.
One by one our allies are leaving us. Britain has already announced direct currency swaps with China. France is doing business directly with Russia. South Korea is also doing direct business with China. All of these deals are with the exclusion of U.S. dollars. Each individual deal that is done is another chip away at the dollar. It is my expectation that we will hear any day now from the Saudi Arabians. They are the absolute trump card and should they announce any deal with any partner in any currency other than dollars, “the day” will have arrived. Should Saudi Arabia make an announcement of accepting another currency, the dollar will probably gap down 2-3 points initially and never again return to these current “heights.” No matter how it is spun by the press, Washington or Wall Street, please know that life as we knew it will have changed. For us Americans, there will be no going back.
In my opinion, our markets and banking system will not hold together more than 2 weeks after any such Saudi announcement and it could be much faster (as in the next day or even same day). This is not me “crying wolf”. The wolf is at the door and if you put the international pieces together this is clear. Life inside of the U.S. (and all over the world) will change. Our standard of living will be crushed. What “dollars” you have left after the smoke clears will purchase far less than they do today. In my opinion it will take 10 to 20 years before our ship can possibly be righted but never to the status that we have enjoyed so far during our lifetimes.
Please do not be fooled or lulled into the “it can’t happen” here syndrome. Who would have thought that Britain, France and South Korea would ever defect their business practices away from the U.S.? This has all happened in a very short time span. I can’t tell you strongly enough that Saudi Arabia will be the last straw, this is only be a matter of time. We know that even our closest allies are moving away from the dollar and we also know that Saudi Arabia has had several top level talks with both Russia and China recently. How much more of a “2+2=4” equation do you need?