Larry Edelson is now profoundly bullish on gold. The bottom is in and the move up is here, now. His predicted bottom, around $1,000 never materialized, but it is nice to see his near three-year bearish stance on gold has flipped back to bullishness. His MINIMUM price targets for gold and silver are $5,000 and $11.25. See the following link to his interview.
Just wait and see what happens when the scrutiny focuses on gold and silver, cuz it ain’t there folks. Say price explosion! Stay off the charts demand for real physical metal that can be delivered! It’s coming. I bet Holter picks up on this and writes an article on the subject.
China Scrambling After “Discovering” Thousands Of Tons Of Rehypothecated Copper, Aluminum Missing – www.zerohedge.com
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/04/2014 21:22 -0400
“Banks are worried about their exposure,” warns one warehousing source, “there is a scramble for people to head down there at the minute and make sure that their metal that they think is covered by a warehouse receipt actually exists.”
The rehypothecated catastrophe that we discussed in great detail here (copper financing), here (all commodities), and here (global contagion) appears to be gathering speed as the China’s northeastern port of Qingdao has halted shipments of aluminum and copper due to an investigation by authorities after they found “there is a discrepancy in metal that should be there and metal that is actually there.”
Continue reading on Zero Hedge.com.
Be sure and read yesterday’s column from Bill Holter titled U.S. GDP and QE and then read the following comments from Seeking Alpha and Dave Kranzler.
The U.S. Economy: Deep Recession Coming – www.seekingalpha.com
Jun. 2, 2014 10:34 PM ET
by: Dave Kranzler
Disclosure: I am short DHI, KBH, RYL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
- Negative real GDP in the first quarter of 2014.
- Key consumer and housing data show further Q2 contraction.
- Decline in interest rates affirm the economy is growing weaker.
Toward the end of 2013 I predicted, based on weak early holiday retail sales and the trend in declining home sales, that the first quarter GDP report might show economic contraction and the start of an official recession. While the “advance” GDP estimate showed a slight gain in Q1, the subsequent 1st revision released last week showed an unexpected 1% contraction in Q1 GDP. It is my view that the key economic data released so far in Q2 indicate a probability that Q2 GDP will contract even more than Q1. For my purposes, “key” data include housing and retail sales. I believe that the economy is headed toward a deep recession and that the stock market is extraordinarily overvalued based on unrealistically high expectations for economic output and corporate income.
Driven by a downturn in private inventory investment, exports and nonresidential fixed investment, the Commerce Department’s Q1 Revised GDP fell from the initial .1% estimated gain to a 1% decline. A .5% decline was the Wall Street consensus forecast. If you dig a little deeper into the report linked, you’ll see a section called “Gross Domestic Income.” This measures the income net of costs generated by the GDP. Real GDI was revised from flat to -2.3% in Q1. As the Commerce Dept. states in the report, “estimates of GDP and GDI tend to follow similar patterns of change” over time. This would suggest to me that there is a good probability that Q2-Q4 GDP reports could show an even deeper economic contraction going on.
Continue reading on Seeking Alpha.com.
The following was posted on FT.com and ties in with the above.
Tepid US recovery – it’s the middle class, stupid – www.ft.com
By Edward Luce
June 1, 2014 5:50 pm
When most of the gains of growth are going to a small slice at the top, little of the money is spent
The only point of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable, said J K Galbraith. Economists blame most of the US’s 1 per cent shrinkage in the first quarter of this year on the harsh winter. Now that the polar vortex is over, America’s much-awaited takeoff will finally happen, they say. Such is the profession’s unshakeable self-belief. For my money, I would sooner consult the star signs. Or the weather report.
Economic forecasters have yet to internalize the fact that the US economy has fundamentally altered. The purchasing power of the majority of Americans has not only stagnated since the recovery began five years ago – it has actually declined.
At $53,000, the median US household is more than $4,000 – or 7.6 per cent – poorer in real terms than it was at the start of the recession in 2008, according to Sentier Research. Yet the economy as a whole has long since overtaken its pre-recession size.
Continue reading on FT.com.