On my weekly podcast with Kerry Lutz, we discussed the expanding malaise taking over the American mindset; if you will, an ominous shift in the zeitgeist of free spending that has characterized our entire lifetimes. In other words, the horrific 11% decline in “Black Friday” weekend shopping was not only characteristic of an economy in freefall, but a growing state of fear and apathy.
Even the MSM is not writing incessantly about holiday shopping, with only the government’s “economic lie machine” still trying to convince us otherwise – per the embarrassingly blatant “seasonal adjustment” they utilized to enable November’s retail sales report to “beat expectations” yesterday morning. Frankly, it’s difficult to believe anyone believes such propaganda anymore, which is why the government’s only remaining “perception weapon” is the expanding manipulation of financial markets. To that end, the “chasm of destruction” between the reality of an expanding DEPRESSION and a record “Dow Jones Propaganda Average” has become so wide, it won’t be long before all three components of the “evil tripod” of perception alternation – i.e., money printing, market manipulation and propaganda – are permanently disabled.
Think about it as reality is setting in everywhere. How many holiday cards have you received this year? In our household, we have received just four compared to perhaps 15-20 in a typical year. How many Christmas shopping commercials have you seen on television? You know, with “Jingle Bells” and the Nutcracker music playing? How many phone calls have you received, letting you know how people are doing? It’s just a feeling, but I sense more and more people are knee-deep in financial concerns; and thus, the supposed “common knowledge” that holiday shopping must be a major event is rapidly dying.
As for the cause of this sentiment shift – which we assure you is much worse outside the U.S., where “reserve currencies” can’t mask reality as well – look no further than the fiat Ponzi scheme that has created the largest most global debt edifice ever. In other words, “history’s greatest fraud.” Oh, TPTB are still trying to blow it up further – by publishing fraudulent retail sales numbers to instill “confidence,” for instance. Or, for that matter, offering 3% down mortgages through the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae zombies and trillions of taxpayer subsidized, undischargable student loans. However, few are biting at the bait anymore – as debt saturation has clearly been reached and the economy too weak to even support hope anymore for the “99%.” And again, for all the secular Americans reading this, the rest of the world is in MUCH worse shape growing worse each day.
At the Miles Franklin Blog, we have discussed the inevitability of economic collapse incessantly, with only the when and how remaining to be answered. Well, “the big one” hasn’t yet arrived; but for the first time, its inevitability is starting to appear imminent. And unless something dramatically shifts in the coming weeks, the most likely catalysts will be one we’ve spoken of ad nauseum – i.e., Greece; and another, the “black swan” of collapsing oil prices that is annihilating both global economic activity and government finances.
This morning, the Greek stock and bond markets are falling again with the former down an incredible 20% in the past three days alone. And as for oil, WTI sits just over $59/bbl. as I write, with “lesser grades” like Bakken crude more than $10/bbl. lower, and Canadian heavy closer to $20/bbl. lower. In other words, nearly back to 2008’s crisis levels, and the real pain hasn’t even started. Frankly, even I am scared by how rapidly the economy is likely to plunge, given that an entire third of S&P 500 capital expenditures occur in the energy industry; which, consequently, has been the only industry to generate net job growth over the past seven years. Yes, all other industries have been net job negative during the so-called “recovery” six years of ZIRP, QE and stock market support has produced; and now that oil prices are freefalling, even the “island of lies” that is U.S. employment data is being isolated. Heck, we’re already seeing the employment blowback, per last week’s surge in continuing job claims to a four-month high. In fact, U.S. oil well drilling permits plunged an astonishing 40% in November alone – which, by the way, ended with WTI crude at $70/bbl. compared to $59/bbl. this morning.
As for financial “markets,” yesterday’s “desperation tutorial” described TPTB’s incredibly blatant efforts to “calm” markets Wednesday afternoon – when oil prices really started plunging, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield commenced a new downside assault on the 2.2% “line in the sand” we noted two months ago. After all, per yesterday’s MUST HEAR Audioblog, if these ugly market trends can’t be reversed before Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, the Fed will be forced to not only refrain from removing “considerable time” from their policy statement, but potentially hint at further QE stimulus. If this occurs, methinks the three-year Cartel orchestrated PM “bear market” will decidedly be over. And as for the rest of the world’s financial markets, don’t be surprised if this is the “temporary exception” to the reality of 2008 revisited – i.e., government-supported stock markets – rapidly dies on the vine.
Actually, if you thought Wednesday’s manipulations were bad, they didn’t even hold a candle to yesterday’s! All day, interest rates were under pressure, along with oil prices that continue to plunge. However, the PPT was hell-bent on recouping Wednesday’s stock losses, given that the Dow is NOT ALLOWED to fall two days in a row. They even managed to generate a massive equity “buying panic” early on – even in energy stocks, whilst energy bonds continued their Lehman-like collapse. And when a scorching 30-year Treasury bond auction was priced at 1:00 PM EST, they still put every ounce of their manipulative efforts into capping gold and silver’s rises – for the second straight day, with prototypical DLITG or “Don’t Let it Turn Green” algorithms – and preventing 2.2% on the 10-year bond from being materially breached on the downside. By day’s end, PMs were roughly unchanged, the Dow 60 points higher and the 10-year yield 2.19%, with oil below $60/bbl. However, this morning, as I write at 7:50 AM EST, oil is barely above $59/bbl., stock futures are down sharply, PMs are again roughly unchanged and the 10-year Treasury yield is at….drum roll please…2.12%; as clearly, the Fed is losing this war.
The day is still young, and we eagerly wait to see if TPTB can reverse these ugly trends before the weekend. If not, any remaining “hope” of FOMC hawkishness will disintegrate, giving rise to talk of “deflation fears” and the potential timing of “QE4.” Throw in the wildcard of Wednesday’s Greek “snap elections” – which will likely give rise to fears of a “Grexit” from the Euro currency; and you have the ingredients of a global financial meltdown that could – no, will – make 2008 look like a “walk in the park.”
Remember, this time around the Central banks have no dry powder and governments no trust from their citizens. And thus, with the supply/demand balance of physical gold and silver so tight, it wouldn’t take much to instigate a buying mania. We can only warn you to prepare for what’s coming; and frankly, precious metal purchases are only part of what you need to do to maximize your ability to survive. Hopefully, you’ll act to protect yourself quickly; and if your gold and silver purchases are amongst your precautions, we humbly ask you to call Miles Franklin at 800-822-8080 and give us a chance to earn your business.
Excellent work, as always.
I can tell you firsthand that people in the D.C. area still don’t quite get it (my friend Jason Burack of Wall St. for Main St. mentions this a lot as well). You see this with the politicians. You see this with federal workers. You see this with the area overall. In the end, though, everyone will feel the pain.
Like a lot of people out there, I’ve had my own struggles, but I’ve never doubted the gold and silver strategy once I woke up after 2008. I will stack what I can and stay prepared.
I use to ask myself the following question – “How in the world did those in charge of our financial system do such stupid things to ruin the entire financial system”?
I was wrong in my question to myself.
I should have been asking myself – “How in the world were the American people so stupid to let crooks and thieves run our entire financial system such that they have robbed us blind and left main street holding the bag”?
Additionally, on Thursday, December 11, 2014, the US Congress just proved they are not working for the American people, but instead working for the Wall Street criminals. They did this by having provision in the bill that is suppose to keep funding the government with language within that bill that allows Wall Street to continue running their casino operaion and leave the American population holding the bag.
Why the American people are not heading for Washington with their pitchforks is beyond me!
This morning on Friday, December 12, 2014, some gasoline stations in Oklahoma City are selling gas at $1.89 a gallon!
It appears that the fracking industry in Oklahoma will be winding down and massive oil field layoffs just around the corner.
Yes, and most of the entire world’s oil production, too!
Hello Mr. Hoffman,
HUGE news this week. The US dollar formed a reversal DOWN on the weekly charts. Meaning, we took out the previous weeks high and closed lower (Friday to Friday). The last time this happened was in January of this year..resulting in 5 weeks of a moderate negative price movement. The MAIN item is this…the last three major highs in the US dollar…were ALL marked by a weekly reversal down.
The dollar is going to be substantially lower 6 weeks from now.
Just thought I would throw this information out to you…remember, I have been trading the commodity markets for over 37 years.
You’re welcome to analyze as you wish. As for me, they are all rigged (see, Exchange Stabilization Fund, Bank of Japan, ECB, etc.), so I no longer care much about charts, particularly short-term ones. No matter how they are painted, however, the fundamentals always win.
I agree the markets are rigged, thus, I rely on the charts to “tell” me when they have changed direction…and all I have to do is listen. Every market has it’s own personality..and I have learned only a few over the years. 15 Days ago my trading system told me the Stock market had changed direction. I began buying short ETF’s on new highs. I have no idea how low it’s going…only that it’s going lower.
Same with the Dollar. It’s going to be lower 4 weeks from now…and that should be price positive for the metals.
Looking forward to seeing what happens, that’s for sure.
By the way…I also agree with you on charts and their technical analysis. The more people that know of different studies in charts…the less relevant that study becomes. When I (like you), see charts with predictions of lows or highs and why..99% of the time go “what ever”. It takes a lot to make me stop and say “that’s interesting”. This is why I developed a trading system back in the mid 1980’s..that NO ONE knows. Once one understands the markets are rigged…the next step is “find” a system which will tell you the trend may/has changed. My trading system works best in certain markets…and those are the ones I trade. The markets are Gold, Soybean, Sugar, Silver, Wheat, US Dollar and the Dow. It is still long the Dollar..but I dumped my longs after the weekly reversal down…and will look for a place to go short next week.
This should be very price positive for the metals!!
P.S. Obviously both Gold and Silver are now long in my trading system. But again, my system only lets me know when a change of direction has occurred.
With oil getting slammed and now the stock indexes, how about this phrase to replace “Manipulation Monday”?
“Margin Call Monday”
With record global margin, that could be quite an understatement shortly.
I agree with your broad view, however, I live in a part of Iowa that is experiencing a lot of growth.i also go to Costa Rica every other month and their economy appears to be running in high gear. Streets and stores very full even after ten at night. Probably my living places are the exception, but exceptions do exist for now. If the fiat crashes I inagine Iowa will be affected, but I am not sure Costa Rica will be. I saw only one American there last trip which was a big change, but I couldn’t even get into two packed bars during a soccer game. There were lines at the checkouts in all the stores. The malls were packed. They have no food stamp program.
Malls being packed doesn’t mean people are BUYING anything. To wit, Black Friday weekend TRAFFIC wasn’t down, but SALES were.
And for the record, here in Colorado I see extremely weak holiday traffic at the malls I pass.
Thanks for adding that key phrase of, record global margin. I meant to mention it.
Thank Goodness for people like Andy and many others.
2015 will be a year of many developments.imho
First of all I expect it to be the year of BLOWBACK.
I suspect that we are already seeing people stand up and the politicians that have handed the world to the bankers will see a huge uprising of discontent and frankly maybe even disgust….
Secondly. Some might say that companies like MF that are trying to get this story told our simply doing so for their own benefit. ie: looking for customers…
There is much much more to it than that in my view.
These people understand the subject and they are doing us a great service by offering this forum..
One subject I would like to see covered again is the future potential for silver as an investment.
Just imagine the value of silver in 5 years…Just imagine the lack of supply, the increase in industrial demand and the return of a reasonable silver to gold ratio…..
Silver is a potentially huge win as an investment and not just as a protection of buying power.
I enjoy the comments from the public here.. There are some well informed people following this blog and that is a compliment to MF in my view.
Thanks Mike, much appreciated.
As for anyone actually believing there is any real conflict of interest in what we write…
And as for silver’s potential, I’m not sure I can write or say more about it. Here’s a podcast I did in November…
…and an article from less than two weeks ago…
Re: Conflict of interest…
Yes, I have heard this argument many times from people who think PMs aren’t a suitable “investment” (their words, not mine).
It basically boils down to PM retailers being like the boy who cried wolf just for the purpose of selling metals.
My most obvious response to them is “Fine, assume you’re right, is there anything inccorect with what they are saying?”….such a response is usually met with silence, as the fallacy in their argument is very easily revealed (ad hominem)
Not much else to say on that one other than a quote
“In a time of universal deceit – telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”