I want to thank all of our readers who sent in their heart warming comments on my D-Day essay, Friday. I made it a point to personally answer each one. I have included one of the e-mails that captures the emotion contained in so many of your responses. Find it in the Mail Box section at the end of the daily.
I’ve noticed an interesting thing about us gold bugs. On the surface, we reek with conviction and are certain of our bullishness. On the surface. But so many of us harbor doubts. There is a tug of war going on between “I know what I’m doing,” and “But what if I’m wrong.” We don’t admit it, not even to our self, and we look outward for people to lean on, people to tell us what we want to hear.
The conflict stems from a clash between short-term market moves and long-term fundamentals. The price of gold should not trade all over the map. For around 80 years it stayed stable at $20 an ounce. Then it locked in at $35 an ounce for another near 40 years. Nobody worried about the price today or tomorrow.
But in today’s gold market, the price is set not by the buyer of the physical commodity – the price is set by large pools of money, controlled by traders and fund managers. But they are all very, very short-term oriented. It is today’s price, this hour’s price, and this minute’s price that concerns them. Often, they use borrowed money (margin) to leverage their short-term moves. Most of them use computers to decide when to buy and when to sell. It is one computer’s algorithm against another’s. What becomes important are the moving averages, and the fundamentals, for the most part, along with the big picture which are not part of the programming.
In the gold world, to use an analogy, the bully is the biggest and baddest dude in the neighborhood. You might think of him as sort of a JPMorgan. What makes it worse is the bully has the cops (CFTC) on his side and they leave him alone to terrorize the rest of us. Some of the kids learn to play along with the bully, and he tolerates them. But those who dare to stand up to him (The Specs) are usually sorry and go home bloodied by the confrontation.
No wonder we gold bugs are always on edge, looking for someone to protect us from the bully. Or at least assuring us that it will all work out and we have nothing to fear. People like Ted Butler and Bill Murphy make a living by shedding light on the bully-Cartel and calling attention to their evil deeds.
If the gold market were a novel, I would tell you that the final chapter ends very well for the Goldbugs. Eventually, the bully throws in the towel and there is happiness in Goldville.
Everyone needs a support structure. Even I do. I have followed a handful of forward- thinkers who not only understood the big picture, they also understand the market fundamentals – they were more or less perma-bulls. They never threw in the towel and never will until gold is returned to its former and necessary role as money!
Many of our readers use myself and Andy Hoffman for not only information, but for support. That’s what we’re here for. Not only to educate, but also to hold hands and remind you that you are doing the right thing, for the right reasons and it will all end up well. When I have my doubts, a very rare occurrence, I look to Jim Sinclair and Richard Russell for wisdom and for support. It’s not that I need them to tell me that things will work out; it’s because it’s nice to hear someone else besides me, shares the same beliefs.
I can’t guarantee you that I am absolutely correct, 100% correct in my bullish views. But I believe it. I believe it to the degree that all of my wealth is tied up in gold, silver and some mining shares. I am willing to risk my financial well-being and that of my wonderful family on my belief. As far as I am concerned, the real risk is in not following my course of action. I cannot even imagine a reality, over the next five years that will derail this bull market. But I could be wrong. The question you have to ask yourself is – since you have to make a choice here; to believe or not to believe in gold – which position should you take? One will be very wrong. One will be very right. I have already made my decision. I made it over 10-years ago. Like it or not, you have to make yours too.
The information Miles Franklin presents to you, five days a week, is geared to arm you with enough accurate and proper information to allow you to make your choice. And we are here for you to lean on and buoy your conviction. Selling you gold is not enough! We are committed to help you hold on to it and weather the storm, until the bull market is over.
Buying gold is not the hardest thing to do; it’s to hold it until the end, and very few investors will.
Most of you have been in the market for a while and you are “early” to the party. Just don’t leave now, as the fun is about to begin.
Those who refuse to see what is happening are, in my humble opinion, Dollar-Dead Men Walking. That’s as clear as I can make it.
One final thought – I took two years of philosophy classes in college and really embraced Existentialism. My heroes were Camus and Sartre. They wrote books that dealt with choice. Choice, or more to the point, the ability to choose, is the one thing that man has that makes him unique. It is our obligation to choose. Otherwise we waste this special unique gift. Being right or wrong is not important. Choosing is important. That’s how we can control our fate. Not to choose is like being in a canoe, floating down the river without a paddle. Not a good idea. So, when it comes to the question – should I buy gold or not? – you have to make that choice. If you don’t, the choice is made for you by default. It’s o.k. to choose not to buy gold; at least that’s a choice. But to end up without any, because you refused to choose, is a mistake. Now, after all of this rambling, you can choose whether or not you wish to continue reading the rest of the daily. It’s your choice.