It’s Tuesday morning, and the way things are going, this bronchitis could be with me for some time. Fortunately, I can still type – and think. However, clinically speaking, I am “light-headed” due to my inability to breathe normally. And thus, while you’ll still get the gist of my thoughts this week, they may be a bit “jumbled” at times.
That said, it’s one of those increasingly common mornings where the MSM appears to have simply “given up” trying to interpret how stock and bond prices can continually rise into the a “wall of worry” so large, it climbs through the heavens, to strata far above even god’s lair. Oh, there are plenty of “horrible headlines” to go around; but at this point, care of the unprecedented, government-sponsored financial bubbles spanning all corners of the planet, the financial media – and even Wall Street itself – doesn’t even bother reporting them anymore; much less, analyzing them. Again, what could be more damning than the NASDAQ trading at its internet-mania highs above 5,000, but CNBC’s viewer ratings at an all-time low, down 75% from when the NASDAQ traded here 15 years ago? Oh, the “1%” are still watching; but as for the rest, we’re just trying to put food on the table – and worry about how to provide for our families in a “zero inflation” environment in which the cost of living is soaring. And heck, that’s just here in the States, where a “flight to liquidity” has dramatically boosted the dollar’s international purchasing power; compared to the hundreds of nations experiencing historic currency implosions; partly due to the Fed’s merciless inflation exportation, and partly the participation of nearly all governments in the “final currency war.”
Before I get to today’s topic – which I just hinted at above – I have several things to discuss. However, the first is an afterthought to yesterday’s vehement Harry Dent refutation, the “Deflation” Boogeyman. In it, I noted how my analysis was cut short by my three page daily writing limit. However, one additional point needs to be addressed today – as it is too important to ignore, and too close to an important tenet of my “investment thesis.” Not to mention, it’s an issue near and dear to my heart, given my “prior life” as a Wall Street commodities analyst.
To wit, Dent claims “another argument gold bugs throw around is that, at current prices, gold is now at production cost. There’s no way it can go lower from here,” they say. “Quite honestly, only a miner could say that with a straight face…as when there’s deleveraging, financial assets and goods don’t fall back to fair value…but way below in a crash and financial crisis.” (To wit), “isn’t fracked oil way below its cost of production? That hasn’t stopped oil from sliding inexorably down. Nor will it stop oil from falling as low as $10 or $20 a barrel…”
First off, the price of gold – and particularly silver – is not just below “production cost” for the vast majority of primary mines, but the long-term sustaining cost of the entire industry. Care of nearly two decades of Cartel price suppression – which I assure you, wouldn’t ever cross Dent’s mind – the industry has not only made essentially ZERO material discoveries, but has all but stopped exploring altogether. Throw in the exponential cost increases involved in exploring, developing, and producing – which expand dramatically as cash starved nations start to consider Precious Metals “strategic resources” (see the recent experience of Venezuelan and Greek mining projects), and our expectation that “peak gold” has already passed is nearly unassailable. Moreover, given current expectations of the world’s largest gold miner, Barrick Gold, I wouldn’t be surprised if Precious Metals’ production profile looks eerily similar to that of shale oil in the coming years; albeit, a tad less dramatic.
More importantly, his comparison between Precious Metals and shale oil “holds no water” – to paraphrase Mona Lisa Vito in My Cousin Vinnie. To wit, whilst nearly all shale oil producers have production costs – and certainly, long-term sustaining costs – above $56/bbl, the vast majority of global production is far more efficient. True, heavily socialized OPEC producers – like Saudi Arabia, for instance – base government spending budgets on prices as high as $100/bbl; and thus, are forced to drain currency reserves to “pay the bills” despite profitable oil production. However, from a pure economic standpoint, the industry’s average cost of production is closer to $20-$40/bbl than today’s $56/bbl. And thus, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit – “oil PPT” and all – to see crude oil trade that low in the coming years. Heck, I all but predicted as much myself, in January’s “direst prediction of all.”
In other words, whilst the financially “deformed” U.S. shale industry may be well below its production costs, the global oil industry is decidedly not. Equally importantly – as discussed in February’s “supply response” – global energy demand is decidedly weakening, whilst gold and silver demand, as noted yesterday, is at or near all-time highs. In fact, irrespective of the heinous Cartel’s vicious, relentless, capping activities, the gold “bear market” ended more than a year ago in nearly all countries – except, of course, the one whose “reserve currency” is attracting dramatic inflows of “fear capital.” Sometime soon, perhaps very soon, said “New York Gold Pool” will be overwhelmed by reality as well; and when it does, we will truly see just how bass-ackwards Dent’s reasoning is. But then again, this is the man who at the top of the internet bubble in 1999, predicted Dow 41,000 and NASDAQ 20,000 by – get this – 2008; followed by his equally wrong-footed prediction, in April 2011, that the Dow would fall to 3,000 by – drum roll please – 2014.
OK, enough on this topic. Hopefully, you understand that the newsletter industry has a distinct need to attract and maintain subscribers. As noted yesterday, the means of doing so – aside from being the “one in a million” investor with a long-term, above average track record – often involve a variety of psychological tricks that prey on weak minds. Resist the urge to believe what such “seers” claim – particularly if it involves claims of “proprietary” knowledge; and instead, do your own due diligence. Trust me, the alternative media – such as the Miles Franklin Blog – provides as much free information as you could possibly require; none of which compels you to make short-term speculative investments in historically overvalued, rigged financial markets.
Back to this morning, the “horrible headlines” keep coming like Mike Tyson jabs circa 1988; i.e., powerfully, and relentlessly. In China, where the PBOC has unquestionably unleashed an equity mania no less powerful than the 1998 internet bubble, the concept of “7%” GDP growth is becoming so comical, even the world’s most collusively criminal Central bankers are laughing. No, China is unquestionably in a deep, expanding Depression – as history’s largest real estate, construction, and credit bubble bursts right before our eyes. No chart describes China’s real economic condition better than this depiction of free falling freight volumes; yet again, far worse than 2008. However, care of the PBOC’s maniacal attempt at orchestrating a mythical “wealth effect” recovery via stock market goosing, Chinese citizens are being herded from the largest real estate bubble ever, to perhaps the largest equity bubble. Which sadly, is no different in essentially any part of the supposedly “civilized” first world; such as in the United States of Market Manipulation itself, where goosed homebuilder stock prices and “sentiment” indices also stand in stark contrast to economic reality – such as last week’s horrific housing starts report, or this damning chart of free falling lumber prices.
Meanwhile, watching German and French stock surge whilst one of their largest creditors, Greece, is on the verge of catastrophic, continent-shattering default is one of the most surreal things I have ever seen. This morning alone, the situation has clearly grown significantly direr; as following yesterday’s imposition of Greek capital controls, it’s looking more and more like May will in fact be the end of the line for “anti-Grexit” propaganda. Greek bond yields are soaring anew, with July 2012’s “whatever it takes” spike highs clearly on the horizon; whilst the Greek stock market is plunging toward its all-time low, led by none other than what I long ago deemed the “world’s most important stock,” and “world’s most insolvent financial institution” – the National Bank of Greece; down 11% this morning alone, and 99.9% from its October 2007 high.
Yes, we are now in a “Twilight Zone to end all Twilight Zones” world – where headlines like “Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac again offer 3% down mortgages” and “more than half of global government bond yields below 1%” have become more the rule than the exception. And no one seems to question world-destroying bankers like Mario Draghi – who, fresh off this weekend’s “dumbest central banking statement ever,” actually claimed “low rates for long periods increase financial stability risks.” This, from the man who spearheaded the ECB’s charge not just to ZIRP territory, but NIRP as well. Anyhow, despite relentless – but clearly weakening – propaganda of “imminent” Fed rate hikes, the reality of ZIRP (or NIRP) to infinity is slowly but surely seeping in. As clearly, in the terminal phase of history’s largest Ponzi scheme – where global debt explodes exponentially – the reality of the necessity of low or no interest rates is becoming “mainstream” knowledge. Inevitably, the issuer of the world’s reserve currency will be forced to admit as much overtly; and when this “Yellen Reversal” inevitably arrives, God himself would have trouble leading the gold Cartel’s ragtag, ammunition-less forces.
With that said, let’s move on to the “one chart that says it all” – of just how pervasively government interference has engulfed what were once freely-traded, rational expectations-based financial markets; and just how dangerously overpriced essentially everything has become, care of history’s most maniacal, global scheme of money printing, market manipulation, and propaganda.
Per below, not only are there more financial bubbles today than ever, but even the rate of growth in said “bubblicious” markets is bubble-like. I’m sure it surprises no one that the chart started going parabolic after the gold standard was abandoned in 1971; really parabolic; after the global economy peaked at the turn of the century; and hyperbolic after the financial system broke in 2008. This is a snapshot of history that will one day be viewed in awe – particularly as the one market that should benefit most from said money printing, Precious Metals, is at this point in time “not allowed” to participate in the bubble party.
However, as sure as day follows night it will; and when it does – likely, sooner rather than later – it will make up for a lot of lost time; and then some.
Andy,
Even drugged up, you’re still sharper than any of the crap hitting the wire, as usual.
I hope you will be touching on this little “gem” or “turd” in your next writing.
http://www.kitco.com/news/2015-04-22/March-US-Existing-Home-Sales.html
The quotes are humorous, as I I have a fairly large network of friends coast-to-coast from years of consulting, and they would be considered “first-time” home buyers, and they are anything BUT confident in the job market. Many have been axed as corporate headcount reduction continues, and those who have a job, are being paid the same as a person who is entering the work force for the first time, and they have 10 years experience on them. It is ridiculous!
We moved to the Southeast. In March 2013, we were visiting family, and you could get a nice new-build for $230k. When we actually moved three months later, same property/neighborhood/developer was selling it for $330k. This was when the FED successfully spooked the market with an actual rate hike, and people rushed into the housing market before mortgage rates supposedly would rise…which never materialized, and home builders dumped inventory homes off their balance sheet they’ve been sitting on.
Fast forward to today, the new-home builders are starting new developments at an insane rate, and price points are still around $330-375. It seems the builders may actually believe the FED hype of a rate hike, and for people to rush into the market again, but I don’t think that will happen because new-builds haven’t budged a bit, so maybe they are settling for existing homes…?
Thanks Daniel.
Unfortunately, I don’t have the bandwidth – or mental strength – to read and dissect every piece of propaganda and stupidity in the market. Just seeing it posted on Kitco was enough for me to avoid.
a
Andy – thought that you (and also Bill) would find this interesting, for a person that Actually lives here in Western Australia it is absolutely staggering to read this. A little over a year ago Perth / WA was rated as one of the biggest economies in the world. In 1 year WA has lost its AAA credit rating, and now it would appear going on the numbers below in the article, to be flat broke? all because the Iron Ore price has dived, strangely people are now asking what has actually happened to all of the royalty money from all of the Iron Ore sold in the biggest boom the market has ever seen?! Keep in mind $b signs here in Aus still mean big numbers, the reason for that is that the whole of WA has only got approx. 1.4M PEOPLE LIVING IN THE WHOLE STATE! – so how are we going to pay it all back!
People are now slowly starting to realise that perhaps something is wrong somehow!? God give us all strength.
Articule Below cheers Al.
Budget woes force Libs to borrow again
Gareth Parker State Political Editor April 23, 2015, 1:50 am
The State Government has moved to increase its borrowing limit for an unprecedented third time in six years, introducing a Bill into Parliament that would authorise it to take on a further $8 billion in loans.
The Loan Bill, introduced by Treasurer Mike Nahan yesterday, is the legislative mechanism the Gov-ernment is required to use to acc-ommodate its record borrowings. Government-owned corporations such as Western Power, Synergy or the Water Corporation have their own borrowing arrangements.
But a Loan Bill must be raised in order to accommodate borrowing by the general government sector, and this latest Bill has been brought forward one year because money appropriated by the previous Loan Bill in 2012 is almost exhausted.
In December’s midyear review, public sector net debt, which includes debt of the general public sector and the public corporations, was $25.3 billion for 2014-15 and was expected to grow to $30.8 billion by June 2018.
Debt projections are expected to blow out substantially when the Budget is handed down next month because of the collapsing iron ore price, which will fuel bigger than previously forecast Budget deficits.
The Government’s first Loan Bill in 2009 authorised borrowing of up to $8.3 billion, which was supposed to service the Government’s borrowing requirements for four years. In 2012, the second Loan Bill authorised a further $5 billion, which was supposed to be enough debt until June next year.
This new $8 billion Loan Bill will provide enough debt funding only until June 2017, Dr Nahan told Parliament while introducing the legislation yesterday.
The former Labor government raised just one Loan Bill in its seven years in power, authorising extra borrowings of $250 million in 2004.
Shadow treasurer Ben Wyatt said the Loan Bill was “exasperating”.
“I just don’t know how it’s come to this, the third Loan Bill of the Government, bringing to $21 billion that Mr Barnett has sought authorisation to borrow,” he said.
“At a time when the State has enjoyed one of the most unprecedented economic booms of our history.”
Yep, and the AUD is plunging, and AUD gold surging!
Prayers go out for your quick recovery ! The awakened need you research and leadership ! As for the rest of the clueless ” cattle ” , they will be looking for your insight after TSHTF !
Thanks, much appreciated!
a