My original thought was to write further about the left turning on and eating each other. The volume of news, “who” and the timing seemed to indicate something very big coming down. However, another story broke out of the blue this morning from Saudi Arabia that supersedes (though very well may have connections to) the feeding frenzy.
Crowned Prince Mohammed bin Salman had 11 princes and 38 current and former senior officials arrested on corruption and money laundering charges. http://www.reuters.com. Prince Alwaleed bin Talal being the most notable arrested. The thought process of “why” becomes scattered after the initial and obvious thought MBS is consolidating his power after being named as next in line back in June.
Adding to the confusion is this news of an offer of arms to the Saudis from Donald Trump https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-05/trump-tells-king-salman-he-supports-more-saudi-arms-purchases I would also point out I do not believe there is any coincidence at all the move was undertaken in Saudi Arabia at the same time Mr. Trump is arriving in Asia. Of additional note was a surprise tweet from Mr. Trump “lobbying” for the IPO of Aramco to be undertaken on the NYSE (by the way, the Chinese have expressed a 5% interest in this offering). There are other, smaller clues but I think we have enough here to see what may be taking place.
It is my opinion, the Saudis are now triggering a move to accept yuan for oil. Those arrested can be seen as players “with” the deep state and aligned with “Hillary’s crew” for a lack of better term. Alwaleed is a major shareholder of Citi and Twitter, a Trump basher and financial supporter of Hillary’s campaign. A look at the others arrested show long time support of “the U.S.” and the petrodollar. One might think Prince Salman undertook these arrests with a “lean” toward the West, based on who was arrested I highly doubt it but we will soon see. Remember, Prince Salman has recently met with both Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin. Saudi Arabia also announced the purchases of S400 weapons from Russia (I asked at the time if this was not a very bad sign for Saudi Arabia’s allegiance to the West?).
I believe Mr. Trump very well may find out a deal is already done and nothing he can do will stop it. I also believe had Hillary been elected, this move would have happened much sooner but we will never know. The next week(s) could be breathtaking. The likely scenario in my opinion will look like this; Saudi Arabia announces they will accept yuan for oil. Mr. Trump will be informed of this, not by the Saudis but likely from the Chinese/Russians. I believe he will be told this deal is already consummated and not to interfere with “trade”.
The Chinese and Russians know exactly how crooked and fraudulent the U.S. has been in business dealings these past years … they also know of the human horrors (do you remember Mr. Putin calling back ALL Russian school children a while back?) Mr. Trump also knows and can have no rebuttal. They and he also know how levered and insolvent the dollar system has become. Whether the Chinese want to move toward an SDR based as some speculate (I don’t think so), yuan based or anything else I do not know. What we do know is they have publicly since 2009 said the “dollar system is not fair” and that the reserve currency must be stable …and that the dollar is not. And remember, the New Silk Road will include and represent over 40% of the world’s population, it will only grow from here!
As I mentioned early on in this writing, I do not believe the frenzy of truth bombs where the left is turning on itself is exclusive from the “petro-yuan”. The world became fed up with the lack of “rule of law” in the US, this is not new. The fact so many are turning on Hillary et al at the same time means something very meaningful has changed. If I am correct and indictments begin to snowball, the US will publicly be seen as the “swamp” it is. Confidence in anything “American” will be broken, this is especially true for the common stock of the United States …the dollar!
Internal turmoil and the uncovering of massive fraud and corruption will go hand in hand as cover, or “reason” for a move away from the dollar as the world’s settlement tool. This I believe is exactly what China/Russia want and will demand. The U.S./Mr. Trump will not be able to say “trust us” we will fix it. It is too late in too many venues from banking/finance/trade etc. to turn this back. The plan has been laid right before our eyes to see and I believe the plan is now coming together.
Maybe I am wrong and this is not about the petro-yuan? It is about “something” and something VERY VERY BIG! I know of nothing bigger than the status of the reserve currency. As I see it, the only possible response other than acceptance by the U.S. is war? We can only hope and pray war is not our response but should not be bet against.
Standing a very attentive watch,
Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
If war, who could we attack that would matter, and that could not strike back?
Mr. Holter is always a great and interesting read. Does he have this one right? We will have to stay tuned.
Very possible. Any idea of how the Chinese/Russians go about this?
A little bit at a time. Some portion of Chinese consumption could be paid from USD holdings. Russia, oil for weapons.
“What we do know is they have publicly since 2009 said the “dollar system is not fair” and that the reserve currency must be stable …and that the dollar is not. ”
This comes from the Chinese who have pegged the yuan to the US$? IMO, pegging one’s currency to some other currency is what one does to enhance its stability when it cannot stand on its own. This is the financial equivalent of training wheels. If the Chinese want to be world financial leaders, then their currency MUST be seen as stable and secure. This means no more devaluing the yuan every time they think it should be cheaper. If they do that, THEN we can talk about them criticizing other currencies. Until then… PFFFT!
The Chinese pegging the yuan to the dollar is not about stabilizing their currency, it is about competitive advantage and balance of trade. Some economists have called it “beggar thy neighbor.” As long as nation can keep their currency artificially undervalued, they will consistently have an advantage in trade, and will run trade surpluses. The US as a trading partner, — on the other hand –, will consistently run trade deficits, —- as we have for decades. Ironically, its these huge trade deficits that help finance the huge US fiscal deficits. Our trading partners turn around and buy US debt instruments with the surpluses. The money has to go somewhere. As much as some of our politicians may complain about “currency manipulation,” they really do not want it to end, — as they could no longer pay for promises with borrowed money. It is an incestuous financial relationship that is unsustainable. They get IOUs while we get real stuff. A commodity/metals base standard would remedy this, as interest rates would be market driven, bringing trade imbalances back to equilibrium. Recessions and recoveries, as a natural part of capital flows, would be less volatile and predictable if interest rates where self regulating (market driven).
Someday the music will stop, but only when confidence in the dollar as a safe haven is lost. The trick for those that hold US debt is, “How do you quietly divest yourself of these growing ‘counter party risks’ without causing a panic, thus rendering your assets worthless?” That is no small task. As long as a nation’s currency is tied to “nothing” except a printing press or a computer entry, their is no such thing as “stable and secure.” We are left with markets that are driven by perception and sentiment, not fiscal reality.
“The Chinese pegging the yuan to the dollar is not about stabilizing their currency, it is about competitive advantage and balance of trade.”
Agreed but this IS what the Chinese will say that it is about. That most on a site like this know better is a testament to rising financial awareness… something that is sorely lacking albeit slowly improving these days.
Bill Thank you for your insightful analysis. I find your comments refreshing.
I too am expecting quite breathtaking developments sooner rather than later. Your informed commentary is appreciated by us here in Australia,
We have been anticipating this move so long, it’s hard not to say, “I’ll believe it when I see it.”
However, you and Jim have done a good job of keeping us informed. Persevere.
Bill, I just went back to reading you, and for the first time on this site, and as usual find your insights very interesting and well founded. As you say there are no coincidences in international or national affairs. The worm does seem to be turning, on the democrats, the deep state and hopefully to some degree on the associated corruption in general, although I don’t absolve the republicans on that note at all. Perhaps there is even a more global development forming, what with possible disclosure of potentially earthchanging news emanating from Antarctica. We live in intesting times and I hope to enjoy the ride in my retiring years.