We learned on Thursday about two very separate trips to be made on Friday. Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Francois Hollande made a trek to Moscow which turned out to be a five hour meeting, while John Kerry flew into Kiev. What were these meetings about? Very little has been reported.
What were the goals and what was accomplished? Presumably Mr. Kerry offered arms and assistance to Ukraine because other than “dollars”, we have nothing else to offer. The meeting in Moscow was not so simple. Do Germany and France see the writing on the wall? Did they make deals with Russia regarding natural gas and the delivery logistics? Trade? Did they pledge to stay neutral and hope Russia did not look towards them when the real fighting begins? Were currencies discussed? Maybe even new ones? Did they put distance between themselves and NATO so as to escape the Russian cross-hairs? Lots of questions and as of yet, few answers but apparently some sort of press conference for Monday and another meeting this Wednesday. I will add one more thought, when the heads of state meet with little to no press coverage and then followed by no statement of the results with any meat on the bone whatsoever, something REALLY big was discussed! Make no mistake, this is not about a single country, nor countries plural. They know this is entirely about “systems” themselves and whether they can work in harmony or not work at all.
We do know one thing for sure, Russia has mobilized her ICBM rocket launchers and will begin full scale war games. Are these only games or are they making ready for the real thing? I would suggest if the U.S. does in fact rearm Ukraine, these may not be “games” any more, Russia will finally retaliate. Another possibility is that of “discovery”. As I understand it, there are now some foreign “boots on the ground”. Ukrainian forces are surrounded in Mariupol , it looks like they will soon to be captured or killed. What if it turns out some of these boots are of the type “made in USA”? We have already seen one video clip of an American combatant in Ukraine, how many more are there? This would be very bad and would give Mr. Putin a good and verifiable reason to escalate the shoving match into a hot war. In my opinion, Mr. Putin will not attack unless provoked directly, I believe he will just sit back and wait. In my opinion, he would prefer to wait until “the money runs out” which I will explain further shortly.
On the financial side, last week was all about Greece. First, they were given an ultimatum and a line in the sand drawn for the end of February to “accept financial aid” from the West, presumably the IMF and ECB. On Friday, this ultimatum was fast forwarded and cut to only 10 days …or else! They have a debt payment due at the beginning of March and do not have the money. Simply put, they are broke. More elegantly but no less to the point, Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s new finance minister said of the Eurozone and I quote “A clueless political personnel, in denial of the systemic nature of the crisis, is pursuing policies akin to carpet bombing the economy of proud European nations in order to save them”. Do you see exactly what he is saying? This is not about Greece, it’s not even about the Eurozone, this is about the systemic failure of the West’s policies and financial system. I want to move along but this aspect of “systemic failure” will be tomorrow’s topic and why the West cannot in any fashion call a spade a spade.
So Greece now has an ultimatum of 10 days, accept the terms of the Eurozone …or get out. Greece doesn’t even need to request departure, the powers that be seem to be threatening to kick them out! Let me point out another Western financial failure and one which will be “dis connected” in the future. Ukraine now has two, possibly three weeks worth of cash left. They also owe Russia several billion dollars for gas already delivered and used. Mr. Putin knows this and as I said earlier, is just sitting back and waiting for the money to run out …or for them to “accept” aide from the West. Both of these NATO countries are broke and unfortunately at the same time which obviously turns up the heat further in rather inconvenient fashion.
Just so you didn’t miss my pun above, Russia is clearly “disconnecting” Ukraine. Russia has already begun very seriously to divert gas shipments that were going through the Ukraine. Russia was not being paid and some of her gas to Europe was being stolen, thus, turn off the spigot. Geo-politically, Russia has already made a pipeline deal with Turkey which will end …you guessed it, at the Greek border! Think this one through, Russia has already offered assistance to Greece …while Greece is being pressured by Europe to go further into debt. Don’t you think it might be in Greece’s best interest to “do a deal” with Russia?
What might any deal look like with Russia and thus out from under the Eurozone and NATO? How about “connecting” to the Turkish pipeline for starters and running it through Greece to arrive in eastern Europe? The Russians (Chinese) could finance the deal, Greece would then earn gas transit cash flows. A pipeline would also create jobs and economic activity. Greece would also be free to trade with Russia, their farmers could ship crops to Russia without being under the current ridiculous embargoes and sanctions, again good for the Greek economy! One last benefit might be “debt relief”. Not that the West will forgive what the Greeks owe (because they cannot, I’ll include this in tomorrow’s piece), the Greeks can simply say “we are not paying you” …
You see, this is what will surely happen, the Greeks will not pay and the debt will default. First, they do not have the ability to pay, they are well and truly broke. Second, what is the solution of the West? Take on more debt “so you can pay us”? The alternative? Let Russia finance a pipeline deal through the country which provides jobs and badly needed revenue while helping the export sector, which one would you choose?
Before finishing I’d like to also mention another NATO country in this mix, Turkey. They have already agreed to build a pipeline through to Europe. They are also another financially strapped country and their currency just imploded this past week. Their lira collapsed 30% in just one day. They are not in as poor a state as Ukraine or Greece but they are on their way …and (for now) a member of NATO. Do you see where this is going? NATO, the Eurozone, “the West” is being chipped away at one by one. The weakest sisters are all going to fall and when they do, they will land in Russia’s lap!
All of these war drums are being beaten with financial drumsticks. It is all about “money” so to speak. It is all about the financial system of the West remaining in power while the financial system of the East is rising. Mr. Putin, China and the East merely have to sit back and wait, similar to a grand “Waterloo” where the weather sets in. In this case, the “weather” is simply debt service, the inabilities to pay it and how interest crowds out real economic activity. Both Greece and Ukraine are dying on the vine simultaneously, they are very public and visible signs of the West’s failing financial system. Neither can fail, neither can “switch sides” and land in Russian arms ‘lest the rest of the world see the West’s fatal financial flaw. You see, Greece and Ukraine are no different financially from the rest of the Eurozone or even the U.S. itself, they are just further along debtors curve. Neither of these countries can fail economically because NO Western spade can EVER be called a spade …tomorrow’s topic.
To finish, I would like to give you my opinion as a lead up to my writing for tomorrow. I believe we will soon have a regional war in Ukraine which goes global very quickly. The obvious question is “why”. Why, if Mr. Putin has so far absorbed each slap and not made any aggressive moves? Why, when little over a year ago, Russia temporarily diffused the Syrian situation so skillfully? The answer is simple and right in front of our faces, the West is broke! The Western financial system is already broke and this fact will soon be exposed… one way or the other. The “exposure” will include the fact that anything and everything not nailed down has already been stolen, collateralized and used to keep the game going. The theft cannot be exposed …so what better way of hiding it than to start a war? What better way of being able to say “our policies would have worked if it weren’t for the war”. War will be “used”, it will be blamed for the mathematically certain financial collapse that is coming!
Regards, Bill Holter
The above was written Saturday, since then we have had several news items moving this along. France has moved toward Russia, Germany and the U.S. are in disagreement in regards to arming Ukraine, Cyprus offered Russia the use of a military base and Greece has refused further “aid” in the ultimatum form of more debt. All very big stuff which points toward reality being uncovered. Sunset for hegemony?
Yes Bill,
This is moving forward quickly and too many refuse to play the game any longer.
The World is in a precarious position and we are at risk front many fronts.
Many of us here have stated for some time that this would end with EVERY MAN FOR HIMSELF..
Countries want to take back control of their destiny.
For some it has been played like a chess game. For others it has been like a poker game.
What transpires in the next two weeks will likely set things in place for the world structure for many decades to come.
I am sick to my stomach in worry for those that refuse to accept that the world as we know it is changing before our eyes.
Never in my life have I ever wanted to been proven wrong.
In the next two weeks I may fully realize that my sense of troubling times looming was indeed correct.
Many family members believe I have lost my mind.
The only thing I have lost is my faith in leadership.
it does look like it’s coming to a head.
Greetings Bill,
Can I have your understanding of what is behind the soaring US dollar as everyone seems to be getting hurt by this anomaly?
Is this simply currency trading or is this the usual ominous dark cloud of conspiracy, once again!
Cheers,
Paul
I believe it is synthetic demand created by margin which carried commodities (margin) being paid back.
The strong dollar is a side effect of the “race to the bottom of the other currencies. Other countries are buying dollars to save in the least devaluing currency. It’s the last phase of the timeline of a world reserve currency, which is backed by paper credit and not by something real.
could be gone in an evening.
Bill,
Another brilliant article. You put the main stream media to shame !!!
As to Greece, they finally figured out they were the sucker at the poker table and don’t want to play any more.
However, Greece is being threatened to sit back down and play and like it or else.
Your comments about what is being offered to Greece is such a difficult situation. Let’s see now, one offer is for a brown paper bag of shit (more debt) or a business arrangement with Russia that seems fair and good for both parties. Gee, that Greece is going to be hard pressed to decide which one is best !!!
As to Putin, he insists on playing chess while DC insists on playing checkers. He’s not taking the bait as expected because he has earned and worn that T-shirt before. He’s not very easy to sucker.
Well off to see if the Waltons come on soon. You were correct in that Leave It To Beaver is no longer playing.
thanks Farrell.
So, Putin the chess master will have planned for the scenario of the West starting and blaming a war…so he must have some means of exposing what they’re doing?
remember where Snowden is residing? I am sure he is not there “rent free” and has given all sorts of dirt up.
What is real..What is perception…What is productive…
What to believe…What is true.. What is false…
The world is today based on more lies than truth.
The world today sees way too many people making way too much money on actions that do not serve to increase production or better society.
As an example, traders that make their living by shorting stocks.
Making money by betting against companies being successful is not a productive contribution to society.
Betting against success is simply betting on the power of failure.
Many men have said in history that Man has himself as his greatest enemy.
Greed and the desire of power will always end badly for someone.
Today our greed and lust for power is about to destroy us.
All in my humble naive opinion.
Bill
Appreciate all you write. Would very much enjoy your comments
on the ever higher dollar and continuing escalating cost of physical goods.
Without the ever appreciating dollar (this past year) it seems that food costs,
educational costs, etc. would all appear much higher then we now see them.
The strengthening $ has in effect covered up the true cost of things necessary
in our daily lives…….perhaps this has been TBTP master plan all along, a slow cooking vs. a flash fry???.
Always appreciate your thoughts.
I believe it is synthetic strength from margin being paid down off of commodity sales (ie. oil).
Bill,
As always your articles are thought provoking. Thanks for everything you and the team at Miles Franklin do. Things are certainly getting crazy out there which I would compare with infants lossing control of the circus. Most of which would be extremely comical if it wasn’t for the up coming tragic events. Between the Califate, Unkraine, EU-Joke, Cyber-Ghost, etc. The stage is set to point multiple blame game directions…
Best regards
too many possibilities.
On Thursday, the EU President said “Greece risks bankruptcy if they continue with the strategy.” To which the Greek finance minister Mr. Varoufakis replied; “Well, we are already bankrupt.”
The height of a stupid statement from the head of the EU!
On Saturday in Brussels the US VP Joe Biden called on the members of the EU to “stand firm and show unity” while dealing with Russia and said that the “dissenting voices” are “inappropriate and annoying.”
The height of not only ignorance, but of arrogance!
Bill I agree that this final round of “Texas Holdem” will be played out shortly. Only problem is, the West is playing with a short stack and a deuce in the hole, against Russia’s Long stack and ace in the hole! Not long to wait now. Time is VERY short.
at some point our bluff will be called.
Hummm,,,,,the ten horns seem to be changing faces.
don’t you mean “tin” horns?
Rev 17:12
Maybe we should call you Pecos Bill – the smartest financial cowboy West of the Mississippi (no disrespect intended). Many blessings to you and your family.
in my younger days they used to call me Wild Bill.
Bill… thanks for yet another great article. In very large part, I agree with your comments… as usual. 🙂
One aspect of this that occurs to me is that the EU cannot afford for Greece to default on their debt and trigger the derivatives implosion that this would cause. These derivatives are leveraged about 25-30:1, if not more, so it is not the $420B that Greece owes so much as it is the $12-14T in derivatives that will be owed by the big EU banks IF Greece defaults. Better by FAR for the EU to simply declare Greece’s debt to be paid in full and the EU pay off the $420B via the usual borrowing and printing method. This seems a viable alternative to me and no one is talking about this possibility. Once the Greek debt has been “paid off”, Greece would exit the EU and perhaps NATO as well, and return to their drachma. This seems about the best possible way to separate the EU from Greece without collapsing the Western banking system. Yes, doing this WILL cause other problems but they have to work on what is in front of them as it comes and this seems a logical step. It will not end the EU’s financial problems, however, but it will eliminate at least one nagging problem for both the EU and for Greece once and for all.
just one card in a house of cards.
” Money Changers ” of Biblical Times OR Quote Maurice Samuel , ” We *** are the DESTROYERS ! We will always be the DESTROYERS, no matter what you do ! “
At the end of the fifth paragraph you said “Both of these NATO countries are broke and unfortunately at the same time which obviously turns up the heat further in rather inconvenient fashion.”
The Ukraine is not part of NATO and that’s the way that Russia wants to keep it.
yes you are correct, Ukraine is a U.S. NATO wannabe.
Bill, I have only recently started reading your postings and am quite impressed with your analysis of what is truly going on in the world. It seems like China has been rather quiet of late. I have a theory that if China is going to do something big it will be before the Chinese New Year on the 19th – the year of the sheep. Apparently, the Chinese people do not want to have babies in this year because they will turn out to be, well, like sheep. This is the year of the horse – a favorite year of the Chinese and a symbol of speedy success. I know it seems crazy to put much stock in something like a zodiac but… the Chinese are very superstitious… Just saying…
Thank you for such kind words, the Chinese would prefer to stand back and let the West fail of its own accord (discord).
Hi Bill,
I hope you are wrong on the war scenario.
It is quite possible though.
Scary stuff.
history says this is probable.
Hi Bill, if Greece defaults 100% on the 340 billion, do you think the default insurance on that will actually pay off? Back when Greece’s creditors had to take a 75% hair cut when the first crisis hit the fan, of course the crooks that sold those creditors their default insurance wouldn’t pay up because they made up the rule that it wasn’t 100% default so it didn’t qualify as a default. Its my understanding that even if it is 100% default the crooks have made up another rule that they don’t have to pay that either if they don’t somehow mitigate (whatever that means). What’s your take on that? Its my opinion that if you have invested in any derivative what so ever you can kiss that investment adios.
no, and you are correct.
Why pick a fight with a nuclear power? No one wins. Just start a war with Iran or North Korea or some Middle East country and blame the collapse on high oil prices when war starts. Why the one country with nuclear subs? China is so quiet waiting patiently. Mad men at the helm. My guess CIA and state dept, pentagon generals must be thinking this govt is nuts
yes, there is a split at the top. A war with Iran or N Korea would not go nuclear?
Hi Bill some comments. I have been listening to Evgeny Fedorov from the Russian Duma- he is amazing. Seems Russia has more problems than most people know. With the collapse of the USSR Gorbachev completely capitulated to the US. The US came in with a constitution that Russia still uses today. It stated that the Western owned Central Bank must answer to the IMF (Western owned) – hence the Ruble crash was greatly helped from Russia’s own Central Bank. Also- they have high interest rates which means that Russain companies must borrow from International Banks. Every time Putin was requesting the Russian Bank to lower rates – they went and raised them! Mr Fedorov calculates that $1billion per day is extorted from Russia to the US as “tribute Payments”. He is right. As an example – during the recent rubble devaluation when the Ruble went down to about 70 the Central Bank kicked the Russian People in the guts by selling Rubles and Buying US dollars when they should have been doing the opposite. Putin- operating within the constitution is powerless to stop the financial rape of Russia- its heartbreaking to see the Russian people go through after the horrors of the Western Bolshevik coup de tat and then Red terror, WWII and Stalin etc. Its obvious that the US is desperatly trying to Break Russia since they need to keep expanding to keep the Dollar alive (new world order dictatorship). They can’t win militarily so they need a Maidan, then Putin over throw just like in Ukraine and they recently tried to have one in St Petersburg which is where Russia has been invaded from 3 times in the past- including the Bolshevik coup de tat. It was thwarted from members of the peoples liberation movement who desire to nationalise the Central Bank of Russia. The US also need to take out all remaining opposition like China, Iran and North Korea so expect further false flags to be blamed on these countries without a shred of proof. Anyway…. the only way out for Russia is to have a referendum on changing the constitution which will make way for nationalising the Central Bank. I am watching this closely because if Russia breaks free from the Western powers then the dollar will crash and the US terror hegemony will be at an end….then we can be a lot more free.
Luv your articles- keep it up,
Matthew
if Russia’s central bank is controlled by the West, why do they buy so much gold?
RE: Greece Leaving EU
In my opinion if Greek leaves the EU, then Goldman Sachs should have to stand behind all the losses. It was Goldman Sachs that falseified Greeks balance sheet so that Greece could become a member of the EU.
Greece was NEVER qualified to be a member of the EU and should have NEVER been admitted to the EU. You can thank Goldman Sachs for this fraud !!!
good luck with this one Farrell!
Doesn’t this say it all? Thoughts/comments?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfEBupAeo4
pretty much!
hi Bill
Good article, but I beg to differ.
Putin is a chess master, and no chess master plays to loose, or wants a stalemate.
War is just that, it is a stalemate, no one wins.
I totally agree about your conclusion over Greece, and I think Russia’s offer is a mighty big carrot to wave infront of the face of a drowning nation. Lets face it they have nothing left to loose.
In my opinion, Merkel and Hollond were in Russia to negotiate their exit from the Dollar reserve currency and the Euro. This is because they know fine well that Russia and China will be holding all the cards on the other side of this meltdown.
It is also entirely possible the US may also cut off any decenting countries from the swift system as punishment for abandoning them, this would only leave the new Russian Chinese system open for international trade. I think also it extremely likely that France and Germany were there to calm the Russians down so as not to respond militarily to US aggression.
Taking all this into account, I don’t think Putin needs to fire a shot, the U.S. And Europe are done for, all he needs to do is sit and wait like a cat infront of a mouse hole.
let’s just see what happens if NATO arm Ukraine.
What about if this is all wromg and Getmany is loyal to the US like it always has been …?
What is sure is, that i. this case you know as much as me … namely nothing!
I can see a lot of nervousness everywhere, and nobody trust anybody –
perfect conditions for war.
Putin playing chess ?!
Wait until the Chinese will do their move.
I miss a bit the point that you never mentioned how tastles and with a big. mouth the new Greek representants went around in Europe and even blackmailing the others partners.
Do they expect that the german hard working and highly taxed laborers, get a soft spot for them .. ?
sorry typing with the Ipad results in lots of spelling mistakes :”)
I apologize.
no worries.
the bottom line is Greece simply cannot pay. This is not an issue of whether they “want” to or not, they do not have the ability.
Exactly right Bill, Greece can not pay, that means they WILL default, no two ways about it.
Yes the ECB could print up the money and pay themselves with it, but we all know the Italians and Spanish are next, so it makes no difference. They may decide to give the Greeks a payment reprieve of a few months to keep things going a bit longer, but again it won’t work, as Greece want OUT! And all the time the Russians are waiting with open arms. Something tells me they will run for the exit. As for Ukraine, I don’t believe the EU would be stupid enough to arm the Rebels.
This is a US policy not an EU one. If the US attempt this expect the EU countries to split from NATO. Then all the sanctions and isolationist policies will come back to finish off the Dollar.
FUBAR!
As you have gone the route of using military acronyms in your reply,
I think one could use this one when it comes to the after hours take downs.
BOHICA
To save you trouble of looking it up it stands for…
Bend over here it comes again!
And certainly one to remember at lunchtime Chinese time!
yes Andy, for now.
If you read the Iron Mountain Papers and Silent Weapons For Quiet Wars Papers you will understand why. Utube Search Agenda 21. Also search utube for Jade Helm and FEMA Camps.
I know we are holding thousands of Foriegn Troops on our Military Bases. I guess if they kill us all, they won’t need the gold we hold. I think it’s time we have a Million Man March. Should we march on the White House or slip into Texas? I think it’s March now or die.
Rex 84, Jade Helm, Garden Plot all scare me.